Data from Woofun AI shows that under the historical average of 383 days for Bitcoin bear markets, the current downturn has already lasted 297 days, bringing the market close to a key turning point.

Looking back at the past three complete cycles, bear market durations exhibit notable patterns. The adjustment from November 2013 to January 2015 lasted 410 days; after the peak in December 2017, the market did not stabilize until December 2018, taking 363 days; and the most recent decline from November 2021 to November 2022 persisted for 376 days.

Woofun AI data indicates that Bitcoin bear markets typically range from just over one year to about 13.5 months, with the average locked at 383 days. If the high on October 6 of last year is considered the start of this bear market, 297 days have already elapsed.

The formation of this cycle is not driven by a single factor. The underlying causes include a structural shift in global interest rate rises, evolving cryptocurrency regulatory policies, and changes in institutional investment trends. While historical averages provide a reference, differences in the macroeconomic environment and market sentiment mean each bear market trajectory is unique; past performance cannot be linearly extrapolated to the future.

For long-term Bitcoin holders, 297 days have already passed the midpoint of historical cycles, but there is still a gap before the average end time. When assessing the timing of a recovery, investors must be cautious about the limitations of historical data, comprehensively consider various economic indicators and potential risk factors, and avoid making confidence-based decisions solely based on the time dimension.