Shares of SpaceX have declined for a third consecutive trading session, with the closing price nearing its initial public offering (IPO) price. This trend has not only raised market doubts about the future performance of this historic, super-large-scale IPO but also highlights the structural fragility of this year's U.S. new stock market, characterized by high valuations and high volatility.

Stock Price Approaches IPO Level Amid Valuation and Lock-up Pressures

At Tuesday's close, shares of SpaceX (stock code: SPCX) fell 2.2% to $136.08 per share, just a step away from its $135 per share IPO price last month. Compared to its post-listing historical high, the share price of this star company, founded by Elon Musk and integrating rockets, satellites, and artificial intelligence, has now fallen by one-third cumulatively, erasing nearly $850 billion in market value.

Market analysts point out that SpaceX stock facing the risk of falling below its IPO price within the first month of listing directly shatters the growth expectations carefully cultivated by the company and its underwriters, dealing a severe blow to subsequent market confidence.

Currently, there are two core factors exerting sustained pressure on SpaceX's stock price:

Excessive Valuation Multiples: Data shows that SpaceX's current forward price-to-sales (P/S) ratio exceeds 30 times, placing it among the highest valuation cohort in the Nasdaq 100 Index, second only to high-valuation tech companies like Palantir.

Facing a Wave of Lock-up Expirations: Ken Mahoney, CEO of Mahoney Asset Management, noted that SpaceX has likely not yet bottomed. In the coming months, restricted shares held by insiders will be unlocked and flow into the market. This persistently increasing supply of shares will exert long-term downward pressure on the stock price, and the willingness of market funds to absorb this supply remains to be seen.

Wall Street's Divergent Views: Institutional Optimism Contrasts with Retail Volatility

It is noteworthy that just a week before its stock price approached the IPO level, SpaceX was added to the Nasdaq 100 Index via a fast-track rule. Despite the recent sluggish performance in the secondary market, over a dozen major investment banks, including Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, and Goldman Sachs, had previously given the company "buy" or equivalent ratings.

Data compiled by Bloomberg shows that among Wall Street analysts tracking SpaceX, over 80% hold a bullish stance, with an average price target set at $236.25, representing a premium of over 70% to the current closing price. Talley Leger, Chief Market Strategist at Wealth Consulting Group, stated that if the stock's decline continues to widen, given the company's industry representation and vision, falling below the IPO price could potentially trigger bargain-hunting interest from funds that missed out on the initial allocation.

Increased Volatility in New Stock Market Pressures 2026 IPO Returns

Regarding the current volatility, a study by Truist Wealth tracking 30 large tech IPOs over the past 15 years indicates that the average maximum decline in the first year after listing can reach 55%, suggesting SpaceX's sharp fluctuations are not an isolated case.

In fact, SpaceX's surge and subsequent retreat is a microcosm of the overall uncertainty in this year's U.S. IPO market. Data compiled by Bloomberg shows that among the year's top ten IPO projects, six companies have already seen their stock prices fall below their first-day closing prices. As of July 13, excluding blank-check companies, the weighted average return for the 2026 cohort of U.S. new stocks has narrowed to 5.3%, only half of the S&P 500 Index's gain over the same period.

Market analysis suggests that following the record-breaking listings of behemoths like SpaceX and South Korean chip giant SK Hynix within the past month, the trading performance of these landmark new stocks in the coming weeks will serve as a key barometer for assessing changes in liquidity and risk appetite within the U.S. capital markets.