SpaceX shares staged a significant rebound on Friday, as Elon Musk delivered a series of optimistic signals at an investment conference that lifted market sentiment.
In late Friday trading, SpaceX (SPCX) shares climbed 9.1% to $134.91, marking the largest single-day gain since August 12. This rebound followed a 9% decline over the prior two trading sessions.
According to Bloomberg, Musk stated at the annual investment conference that SpaceX's fourth-quarter revenue will grow approximately 70% compared to the third quarter, and reiterated that the company is on track to achieve a $100 billion annualized revenue run rate by December, with that figure expected to surpass $500 billion by the end of 2027.
Meanwhile, Musk disclosed that revenue from U.S. government agencies will fall to less than 10% of total revenue this quarter, down from 16.6% in the previous quarter.
Analysts suggest this statement signals that SpaceX is accelerating its shift away from reliance on government contracts, transforming into a commercial technology company driven primarily by artificial intelligence and satellite businesses, which holds significant reference value for investors assessing its future revenue structure.
Government Contract Share Continues to Decline as AI Business Emerges as Top Revenue Source
SpaceX's collaboration with U.S. government agencies was once its most important revenue source, but this landscape is rapidly changing.
According to Bloomberg, throughout 2025, contracts from government agencies accounted for approximately one-fifth of SpaceX's total revenue. In the most recent quarter, that proportion fell to 16.6%, and Musk expects it to drop below 10% this quarter.
Responding to users on X, Musk said the government contracts SpaceX has secured offer "the best products at the lowest prices," and hinted that even if Democratic lawmakers object, the company is not afraid of losing contracts.
Nevertheless, SpaceX's cooperation with the government remains strategically important. The company currently holds a key NASA contract to send humans to the Moon, planning to use its Starship rocket for a crewed lunar mission as early as 2028.
At the same time, the Pentagon also relies on SpaceX to launch important national security satellites. Competitors have previously complained that the Defense Department's contract design is too tailored, effectively making it winnable only by SpaceX.
Additionally, Musk stated that if an opportunity arises to acquire a major wireless carrier, the primary purpose would be to obtain its valuable spectrum resources. SpaceX has purchased two batches of wireless spectrum over the past year to advance its satellite-terrestrial hybrid wireless network buildout.
In contrast, AI customers are rapidly dominating SpaceX's revenue structure. According to Bloomberg, AI company Anthropic is currently SpaceX's single largest customer, contributing more than one-third of quarterly revenue. SpaceX has also signed computing power leasing contracts with technology companies including Alphabet's Google.
On the previous quarter's earnings call, Musk said that computing power demand at the Memphis, Tennessee data center continues to climb, and the AI business achieved profitability for the first time this quarter.
Share Price Under Pressure Amid Complex Background as AI Computing Contract Stability Questioned
Despite the strong rebound on Friday, SpaceX shares still face pressure over a longer time frame.
Data shows the stock has declined 10.32% over the past five trading days and 28.13% over the past month, having fallen significantly from its historical high of approximately $226 last year.
Trader Ali Martinez noted that SPCX has broken below the midline of its parallel trading channel, and if it declines further, it could face a risk of dropping another 12% to the $108 range, approaching its historical low of $104.83.
Martinez also attributed part of the recent selling pressure to the unlocking of approximately 2 billion shares in October, with additional supply pressure weighing on the stock price.
The AI computing power leasing business that SpaceX is heavily betting on is not without risks either. According to Bloomberg, Microsoft is gradually terminating its data center usage agreement with Oracle, highlighting the fragility of computing contracts. Furthermore, SpaceX's largest customer Anthropic could potentially exit the partnership as early as next year after a notice period.
Notably, Musk's latest forecast comes just days after Democrats regained control of both the Senate and House of Representatives. The billionaire spent over $445 million on Republican campaigns during the election cycle, and observers are watching whether this could potentially affect SpaceX's government contract relationships with the new Congress.
Musk Says Model Y Has Become the World's Best-Selling Vehicle
At the same conference, Musk also made important remarks about his other company, Tesla (TSLA).
Musk announced that Tesla's Model Y has become the world's best-selling vehicle, covering all categories of gasoline and electric vehicles. He specifically highlighted the Chinese market, stating that Model Y is China's best-selling electric vehicle, and remarked that "Chinese automakers are very formidable," offering rare public recognition of domestic competitors' technological strength.
Musk stated that maintaining a leading position amid fierce competition with domestic brands in the world's largest automotive market itself demonstrates the product competitiveness of Model Y.