On November 28, with oil prices remaining weak, OPEC+ members are expected to continue pausing production increases during their upcoming online meeting this Sunday. This reflects heightened market concerns over oversupply and price pressures. According to CWG Markets FX analysis, the move is primarily driven by Saudi Arabia and its partners to stabilize the market. Industry representatives suggest the meeting will likely be "straightforward," with ministers reiterating their existing policy of halting crude production hikes in Q1 2026. Brent crude prices hover around $63 per barrel, and rising global inventories make the pause necessary to avoid exacerbating market pressure.

The energy market is currently in a delicate phase. With potential easing in the Ukraine conflict, more Russian crude could enter the market, while production from the U.S. and other non-OPEC nations continues to rise, adding to supply concerns. Analysts widely agree that declining geopolitical risks and increasing non-OPEC output are significantly dampening market sentiment. OPEC data indicates that production from the U.S., Brazil, and Guyana is growing rapidly, with non-OPEC liquid supply expected to rise by 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) next year. Global demand, meanwhile, is projected to increase by 1.6 million bpd to 106.2 million bpd. While demand growth remains robust, it may no longer be sufficient to tighten the supply-demand balance, potentially shifting the market from deficit to equilibrium or even surplus. CWG Markets FX warns that further demand slowdown could prolong oil price pressures, urging investors to monitor inventory and production adjustments closely.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has amplified oversupply concerns, forecasting global crude inventories could surge to a record 5 million bpd in Q1 2026, adding downward pressure on prices and limiting near-term recovery potential. However, OPEC Secretary-General Haitham al Ghais disputes claims of an actual surplus, citing misinterpretations of the latest Monthly Oil Market Report. He reiterated OPEC’s expectation of a balanced market in 2026. CWG Markets FX notes that while Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and others maintain voluntary output cuts, some members are reassessing long-term capacity. If prices stabilize, gradual production increases may resume later this year, introducing uncertainty and trading opportunities.

Overall, Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting is expected to confirm the pause in production hikes while emphasizing a flexible, wait-and-see approach. CWG Markets FX believes this strategy aims to preserve alliance unity while navigating slowing demand, rising supply, and geopolitical risks. For forex and commodity traders, oil price volatility may persist—short-term strategies should track inventory data, non-OPEC output, and geopolitical developments, while long-term investments require close attention to OPEC+ policy shifts and global market balance.