Abstract

Macerich will report its second quarter 2026 results on August 4, 2026 Post Market; consensus points to a modest year-over-year revenue dip with improving earnings quality and an emphasis on leasing execution and redevelopment pacing.

Market Forecast

Based on the latest projections, Macerich’s second quarter 2026 revenue is estimated at 236.14 million US dollars, implying a 1.80% year-over-year decline; estimated EPS is -0.06 US dollars, an improvement of 30.41% year-over-year, and forecast EBIT is 50.87 million US dollars, up 94.37% year-over-year. Forecasts for gross margin and net profit margin are not available from the dataset; however, the setup implies EBITDA/EBIT leverage as the primary driver of earnings improvement despite a soft top line.

Leasing remains the operational centerpiece, accounting for 93.56% of last quarter revenue, and the market will look for rent roll-up and re-leasing spreads to sustain cash flow as space turns over across the portfolio. The most promising revenue contributor remains leasing at 225.98 million US dollars in the prior quarter; with total revenue down 3.08% year-over-year then, leasing likely tracked a similar trend, and investors will watch whether leasing strength can close the modest revenue gap this quarter.

Last Quarter Review

For the prior quarter, Macerich delivered revenue of 241.54 million US dollars (down 3.08% year-over-year), posted a gross profit margin of 48.44%, reported a GAAP net loss attributable to the parent of 36.35 million US dollars (net profit margin -15.69%, sequential change in net profit -93.76%), and recorded adjusted earnings via the company’s preferred operating metric at 0.34 US dollars per share (up 3.03% year-over-year as company-reported funds from operations per share).

One notable development was the company’s continued return of capital with a quarterly cash dividend of 0.17 US dollars per share during the period, alongside the initiation of forward equity offerings that aim to fund future acquisitions and general corporate purposes without immediate dilution. In the business mix, leasing generated 225.98 million US dollars (93.56% of revenue), management services contributed 6.54 million US dollars, and other operations added 9.02 million US dollars, within an overall 3.08% year-over-year decline in total revenue.

Current Quarter Outlook

Leasing and Rental Income Dynamics

Leasing is the core earnings engine for Macerich this quarter. With 93.56% of last quarter’s revenue coming from leasing, quarterly performance will concentrate on re-leasing spreads achieved on expiring leases and the cadence of signed but not yet open tenants converting into paying rent. The consensus framework suggests revenue at 236.14 million US dollars with a modest 1.80% year-over-year decline, but EBIT is expected to rise sharply to 50.87 million US dollars, indicating that margin management and operating leverage will be critical. Any commentary on average base rent resets, percentage-rent contributions from stronger categories, and collections discipline will be decisive for interpreting the sustainability of the earnings improvement implied by a 94.37% year-over-year rise in EBIT.

The last reported gross margin of 48.44% provides a baseline for evaluating flow-through. If the company manages controllable expenses and captures higher re-leasing spreads, gross margin could hold or improve despite a slightly lower revenue print. A negative GAAP EPS expectation of -0.06 US dollars still indicates modest loss under GAAP, but a 30.41% year-over-year improvement aligns with an expected quality uptick relative to the same quarter last year. A tighter focus on expense controls, tenant mix optimization, and conversion of signed leases is therefore the near-term bridge between softer top line and stronger operating earnings.

Investors should also parse the timing and magnitude of lease commencements that fall in or out of the quarter. Where commencement timing pushes revenue recognition across quarter boundaries, the headline revenue trend can understate the run-rate improvement. Management’s color on occupancy movement, blended releasing spreads, and space backfill timelines will thus carry disproportionate weight for interpreting the durability of a prospective second-half inflection.

Redevelopment, Capital Deployment, and Balance Sheet Signals

Near-term growth optics will also be shaped by redevelopment progress and the staged deployment of capital. Following the announcements of underwritten public offerings using forward sale agreements (14.00 million common shares with an option of up to 2.10 million additional shares), Macerich positioned itself to access capital to fund acquisitions and redevelopment without immediate issuance-related dilution. While forward shares do not instantly increase the share count, investors will scrutinize the timing of settlements and the return profile of projects funded with those proceeds. The key is matching capital inflows with projects that scale net operating income, so EBIT expansion can outpace any eventual dilution from forward settlement.

On the income statement, the 94.37% year-over-year forecast increase in EBIT suggests scope for redevelopment completions and operating efficiency to lift run-rate earnings even as revenue declines slightly. The dividend continuity at 0.17 US dollars per share underscores management’s confidence in cash flows; a supportive operating base combined with redeployment of capital could protect that payout while reinforcing medium-term growth. The principal questions are the pace of tenant openings on redeveloped or recently delivered spaces and the lead times to leased occupancy translating into FFO and cash.

Given the prior quarter’s 48.44% gross margin and the substantial leasing revenue base, incremental contribution from redevelopments can have a material lift on margin if delivered into strong demand. Conversely, the cadence of spend and project ramp-up can temporarily pressure margins if revenue timing lags. A clear update on project delivery timetables, targeted tenants, and expected rent per square foot on newly delivered spaces will therefore serve as a quantitative check on the anticipated EBIT step-up.

What Will Move the Stock in This Print

The stock reaction around this quarter is likely to hinge on three focal points. First, the variance between the revenue print and the 236.14 million US dollars estimate, coupled with color on signed-not-opened tenants and re-leasing spreads, will shape the market’s read on the revenue trajectory into the second half of 2026. Even if revenue lands close to estimates, investors will emphasize qualitative guidance on space absorption and pricing that foreshadows whether the modest 1.80% year-over-year decline is transient or structural.

Second, margins and operating leverage will be center stage given the gap between the revenue decline and the 94.37% forecast EBIT growth. The magnitude of this leverage depends on controllable expense discipline, mix effects, and the onset of rent from completed projects. If EBIT tracks or exceeds expectations, the negative GAAP EPS of -0.06 US dollars may be less of a headline concern, especially if management communicates a clear run-rate improvement path.

Third, balance sheet and capital updates will matter. Markets will look for clarity on the timing and intended uses of proceeds from forward equity offerings, whether any near-term acquisitions are sizing up, and how these moves align with dividend coverage. Confirmation that proceeds are earmarked for higher-return redevelopments or accretive acquisitions would reinforce the view that recent capital actions are constructive for longer-term earnings power. Any updates that reduce uncertainty around forward settlements, or that demonstrate tangible NOI uplift from funded projects, are likely to be received positively.

Analyst Opinions

Bullish views have the upper hand among recent opinions, with an 80% to 20% bullish-to-bearish ratio based on collated commentary during the period from January 1, 2026 to July 28, 2026. Multiple well-known institutions have taken constructive stances and raised targets, pointing to improving earnings quality, better capital flexibility, and the prospect of enhanced operating metrics.

Citigroup upgraded the shares to Buy and lifted its price target to 28 US dollars, citing improved prospects and constructive risk-reward. Deutsche Bank also moved to Buy with a 27 US dollars target, signaling confidence in the company’s ability to translate leasing execution and redevelopment progress into earnings outperformance. Truist maintained its Buy rating and raised its price target to 26 US dollars, highlighting better-than-expected operating performance earlier in the year and a supportive outlook for cash flow into the midyear period. Scotiabank reiterated a Buy with a 22 US dollars target, underscoring a positive stance on the company’s forward earnings path.

The bullish consensus rests on several pillars. Analysts see the revenue line holding relatively close to prior-year levels this quarter at 236.14 million US dollars while EBIT expands meaningfully, implying improved cost control and operating leverage. That setup is consistent with a negative GAAP EPS estimate of -0.06 US dollars that nonetheless marks a 30.41% year-over-year improvement, and with an earlier quarter that delivered 0.34 US dollars per share in the company’s preferred operating metric. The capacity to support a 0.17 US dollars dividend, coupled with newly arranged forward equity flexibility intended for acquisitions and redevelopment, supports a constructive medium-term case in which incremental NOI from projects and leasing progress outpaces any dilution upon settlement of forward equity.

In this context, the majority view expects the second quarter to validate a gradual improvement narrative: stable revenue near 236.14 million US dollars, stronger EBIT around 50.87 million US dollars, and qualitative color from management that confirms the pace of lease commencements and redevelopment returns. Should the company provide evidence that leasing spreads are firm and that redevelopment deliveries are tracking to plan, analysts argue that the stock can sustain or extend gains on the back of upward estimate revisions for forward quarters.