On November 28, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment held a regular press conference, where spokesperson Pei Xiaofei announced the issuance of the "2024-2025 National Carbon Emission Trading Market Quota Allocation Plan for Steel, Cement, and Aluminum Smelting Industries." The plan draws on the mature experience of the power generation sector, maintaining a free quota allocation framework based on carbon intensity control. It adopts a "trial period" approach, considering macroeconomic factors and emphasizing a policy direction that "rewards the advanced and spurs the lagging." Companies' quotas are tied to actual output without an absolute cap on total emissions.

Under the plan, the Ministry will organize newly included industries to complete their first quota settlement within the year. Local governments will oversee compliance to ensure the seriousness and effectiveness of the carbon trading market, promoting stable and healthy operations.

Galaxy Securities released a 2026 strategy report for the building materials sector, noting a recovery trend in the 2025 sector index and fundamentals, with varying performances across sub-sectors. The "anti-involution" policy continues to reshape competition in traditional markets like cement and glass, improving supply-demand dynamics and profitability.

Tianfeng Securities highlighted that cement production in northern provinces has entered a winter off-peak season, with over 85% of clinker lines idled. Recent announcements revealed December shutdown plans, including 13–15 days in the Yangtze River Delta and a full-month halt in Hunan due to environmental pressures. Short-term profitability remains resilient, with leading firms addressing excess capacity. By November, 52.5 million tons of capacity had been added via replacements, while 83.59 million tons were phased out. Tianfeng expects tangible effects of excess capacity management to emerge by 2026.

Relevant Hong Kong-listed cement stocks include: HUAXIN CEMENT (06655), CNBM (03323), CONCH CEMENT (00914), CR BLDG MAT TEC (01313), SHANSHUI CEMENT (00691), WESTCHINACEMENT (02233), BBMG (02009), and others.