The marginal shift in the cost of holding gold has become a key focus. Despite a notable rise in real yields, gold has managed to hold above the $4,000 region, with some research suggesting that the pressure from opportunity costs may be approaching its peak.

Following the initial revaluation, the market is seeking evidence of a sustained trend. MHMarkets Maihui notes that while real yields remain elevated, discussions have begun on the limited room for further increases, leading to a marginal change in gold's opportunity cost. A single day's result is insufficient to represent a complete trend.

If real yields and the US dollar do not continue to strengthen, gold could see conditions for recovery through allocation demand and fund inflows, but the trend still requires confirmation from consecutive data readings. This represents the other side of the market narrative.

When comparing different maturities, MHMarkets Maihui assesses that European funds have continued to see inflows even in a high-yield environment, indicating that allocation demand has not fully exited and that price resilience has a solid capital base. Subsequent analysis should rely on sustained data testing rather than following short-term sentiment.

To determine whether pressure has truly peaked, it is necessary to simultaneously examine the yield curve slope, US dollar strength, and the continuous subscription and redemption patterns of gold funds. The path from fundamentals to prices is not a single-step process; costs, positioning, and liquidity all participate sequentially in the transmission mechanism.

Separating events that have already occurred from expectations that have not yet materialized can reduce excessive interpretation of rapid price swings. A new observation window will be opened by the trajectory of real yields and the US dollar slope. Once daily fluctuations take a back seat, MHMarkets Maihui believes that the ability of capital to remain in the market and the convergence of volatility will become more valuable references. If continuous feedback remains unstable, the market may continue to trade within a range-bound framework.