Caitong Securities Co.,Ltd. has released a research report recommending that investors focus on the entire glass substrate industry chain to capture long-term value growth opportunities.

In the upstream sector, priority should be given to companies with independent and controllable technologies. For the midstream segment, attention should be directed toward firms that have already completed technological breakthroughs and are now accelerating capacity release. Downstream, investors should monitor the commercial deployment of core application scenarios such as AI computing chips and co-packaged optics over the long term, while prioritizing core enterprises with technological and capacity advantages.

Additionally, domestic Chinese companies are expected to achieve a second growth curve driven by import substitution. Companies leading in domestic technological breakthroughs and capacity expansion are worth particular attention.

On the Eve of Glass Substrate Mass Production, the Industry Chain Accelerates Breakthroughs

Glass substrates are expected to gradually overcome capacity and yield bottlenecks over the next five years, achieving industrialization in phases before entering a mature stage.

The year 2026 is seen as the commercial verification phase for glass substrates. During this period, the industry will attempt trial production, driven by growing demand for high-performance packaging, maturing packaging technologies, and supportive industrial policies.

The year 2027 could be a critical window for the glass substrate industry to move toward large-scale mass production. Small-scale production is anticipated, with initial formation of the industry chain division of labor. Differences in technical routes and customer verification cycles among various manufacturers may become potential constraints on the industrialization process.

By 2028, the glass substrate industry is expected to fully enter mass production, potentially benefiting from the implementation of production lines and technological maturity by major manufacturers. This will lead to concentrated capacity releases, yields crossing the commercial threshold, and a cost inflection point.

From 2029 to 2030, the industry is likely to enter a phase of large-scale volume expansion. Global supply and demand may shift from a state of shortage to a dynamic balance, with industry standards gradually unified and the pace of domestic substitution accelerating.

Industry Chain: Overseas Leaders Dominate, but Domestic Firms Are Breaking Through

The glass substrate industry chain spans a wide range of sectors, with strong upstream-downstream linkages. It is characterized by a pattern where overseas giants lead, but domestic companies are emerging rapidly and are expected to accelerate the localization process.

The upstream sector, involving glass raw materials, processing equipment, and processing consumables, holds fundamental importance. However, it has long been dominated by international giants like Corning. The entry of domestic manufacturers such as Gobeka, Kibing Group, Linuo Pharmaceutical, Delixi Laser, and Tiancheng Technology is expected to bring industry transformation and create new investment opportunities.

The midstream glass substrate manufacturing sector is the core of value concentration and technological barriers in the industry chain. The technical routes and industry positioning of various companies are clearly differentiated. Overseas giants like Intel, Absolics, and Samsung Electro-Mechanics lead in industrialization progress. Domestically, manufacturers such as Wogo Electronics and BOE are expected to capture a certain market share through technological breakthroughs and local advantages.

The downstream glass substrate packaging sector has formed multiple technical routes, including glass interposers, glass carriers, and glass interposers. These are represented by Intel, Samsung, and TSMC, respectively, and are adapted to different scenarios such as precision component substrate mounting, flexible electronic component packaging, and high-end processor heterogeneous integration. They cover vast markets including high-end packaging, co-packaged optics, and RF devices.

Risk Factors

Risks include the possibility that commercialization progress falls short of expectations, bottlenecks in equipment and yield rates, and fluctuations in downstream AI demand along with capacity oversupply risks.