CICC has released a research report maintaining its EBITDA forecasts for GALAXY ENT (00027) for 2026 and 2027. The company's current share price corresponds to an 8x 2026 EV/EBITDA multiple, treating financial assets as cash. The firm reiterates its "Outperform" rating and a target price of HK$44.10, which implies an 11x 2026 EV/EBITDA multiple (treating financial assets as cash), suggesting a potential upside of approximately 36% from the current share price.

CICC's key points are as follows:

**1Q26 Results Align with Visible Alpha Consensus** GALAXY ENT reported its 1Q26 results: revenue reached HK$12.396 billion (up 11% year-over-year, down 10% quarter-over-quarter), recovering to 95% of 1Q19 levels. Adjusted EBITDA was HK$3.576 billion (up 8% year-over-year, down 17% quarter-over-quarter), recovering to 90% of 1Q19 levels, which was largely in line with the Visible Alpha consensus estimate of HK$3.526 billion. CICC attributes the performance primarily to the gaming win rate normalizing to typical levels in 1Q26.

Daily fixed operating costs in 1Q26 averaged approximately $3.7 million (flat compared to 4Q25), driven by ongoing cost control measures and improved staff efficiency. Capital expenditure for 1Q26 was HK$900 million, with management projecting full-year 2026 capital expenditure to be between HK$10 billion and HK$11 billion. Management indicated that the premium mass segment accounts for about 45% of mass gaming revenue, while CICC notes that mass gaming revenue constitutes approximately 75.4% of total gaming revenue.

CICC believes GALAXY ENT will continue to focus on premium mass customers to drive the development of its Phase 4 project. The threshold for premium mass customers is defined as those with an Average Daily Theoretical Win (ADT) exceeding HK$10,000 to HK$15,000. Although management believes StarWorld Hotel can attract customers from City Clubs, its 1Q26 performance remained weak, with StarWorld's market share of gaming revenue at about 2.3% in 1Q26 (compared to 2.2% in 4Q25). Management stated that the Middle East conflict has not had a direct impact on the company's operations but anticipates seasonal disruptions during the 2026 World Cup period.

Risk factors include: new property ramp-up falling short of expectations; and intensified competition potentially leading to market share loss.