The precious metals market has witnessed an extraordinary year—gold prices surged over 65%, while silver prices more than doubled.

Bank of Montreal (BMO) Capital Markets anticipates gold's upward trend will persist into 2026. Despite current prices hovering near all-time highs, analysts see further room for gains, explicitly favoring gold among precious metals.

**Gold in Focus: BMO Raises 2026 Price Forecast** In its 2026 Commodity Outlook, BMO projects gold will peak in the first half of the year. Analysts now forecast an average gold price of $4,600/oz for H1, up ~5% from prior estimates. For the full year, the bank expects an average of $4,550/oz, a ~3% upward revision.

This suggests BMO believes gold’s rally isn’t over. After a ~65% annual gain and nearly 50 record highs, analysts note the bull market, though mature, retains momentum. Gold remains the top pick in the sector for 2026.

**Silver: Caution After 100% Surge** While gold stays in focus, BMO’s silver outlook is nuanced. It predicts Q4 2026 silver prices will average ~$60/oz (the yearly high), with a full-year average of $56.30. Notably, both figures lag the current spot price (~$65/oz). Despite raising its 2026 silver forecast by 14%, BMO warns of overbought conditions in silver and platinum. Recent rallies have been sharp, but supply deficits are narrowing per updated models.

Analysts attribute silver’s demand to: 1. The "debasement trade" (investors flocking to tangible assets like gold); 2. Increased hoarding in the U.S. after its designation as a "Critical Mineral." While silver may mirror or outpace gold during tight supply, BMO sees less upside than gold in 2026.

**Macro Drivers: Rate Cuts, Weaker USD, and "De-Dollarization"** BMO’s thesis hinges on macro support for gold. With the Fed expected to keep cutting rates, lower U.S. yields typically weaken the dollar and boost zero-yield gold. High U.S. debt levels also leave the dollar vulnerable to "debasement" fears, reinforcing gold’s role as a hedge against currency and debt risks.

The bank highlights gold’s structural shift in global finance, entering a "new era" driven by two forms of de-dollarization: - **Geopolitical**: Nations reducing USD reliance to mitigate sanction risks or payment-system dependence (e.g., central bank gold buying). - **Safe-Haven**: Investors hedging long-term purchasing-power erosion from rising sovereign debt and currency debasement.

October’s brief gold pullback and swift recovery signaled its enduring appeal as a diversifier and haven.

**Gold: A Portfolio Anchor** BMO asserts gold’s tactical role will remain central. By end-2026, it’s expected to outperform U.S. Treasuries and the dollar, stabilizing portfolios amid bond market weakness and USD pressure. The multi-year uptrend persists: near-term inflation/uncertainty supports prices, while long-term currency debasement looms. Despite its rally, gold’s share of global financial assets remains low—hinting at further allocation potential.

While maintaining bullish views on silver/platinum, BMO unequivocally crowns gold the cycle’s core precious metal. Silver’s volatility may amplify during supply squeezes, but after this year’s parabolic rise, it shows clearer overvaluation signs.