US Treasury Yield Curve Expected to Steepen Significantly by 2026

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Bavarian Bank's Head of Research Jürgen Michels stated in a report that the US Treasury yield curve is projected to steepen notably by 2026. The German bank's research lead noted that after an initial sideways phase, the two-year Treasury yield may resume its downward trend as the Federal Reserve is expected to begin rate cuts starting in June. Meanwhile, he highlighted that persistently high US budget deficits and the resulting elevated supply of Treasury securities will continue to push the 10-year yield higher. Bavarian Bank forecasts the 10-year Treasury yield to rise to 4.4% by the end of 2026. According to Tradeweb data, the yield closed at 3.991% on Wednesday. The US Treasury market was closed Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday.

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