An asset manager from Azimut Group believes Japanese government bonds, despite being viewed as risky, still present one of the best opportunities in the global fixed-income market. Nicolo Bocchin, the head of global fixed income at the USD 180 billion firm, argues that the Bank of Japan will not adopt aggressive rate hikes and that traders are overestimating Japan's inflation outlook.

"I am a buyer, very bullish on long-term Japanese government bonds," Bocchin stated in an interview on Monday. "The long end of the yield curve is extremely attractive." His perspective directly contradicts one of the market's most dominant trading narratives, which has driven long-term Japanese bond yields to multi-decade highs, fueled by expectations of persistent inflation, widening fiscal deficits, and the central bank's gradual withdrawal from the market.

The yield on Japan's 40-year government bond recently climbed to 4.01%, edging closer to the record high of around 4.355% hit in May. Concurrently, the yen has weakened against the US dollar, hovering near a 40-year low around 164. Bocchin argues that these risks are already priced into Japanese bond valuations.

While inflation has finally emerged after decades of falling prices, the annual rate remains below 2%. Japanese policymakers have repeatedly emphasized that preventing a return to deflation is still their top priority.