Hong Kong-listed mainland property stocks showed signs of recovery today. At the time of writing, Greentown China (03900) rose 8.36% to HK$8.94, R&F Properties (02777) gained 5.66% to HK$0.56, SEAZEN (01030) climbed 4.04% to HK$2.32, and SHIMAO GROUP (00813) increased 3.85% to HK$0.27.

Market data from CRIC shows that China's top 100 developers achieved contracted sales of 253 billion yuan in October 2025, up 0.1% month-on-month but down 41.9% year-on-year. Cumulative sales for the year reached 2.58 trillion yuan, representing a 16% year-on-year decline, with the contraction widening by 4.2 percentage points compared to the first nine months.

Morgan Stanley analysts noted that the large inventory of secondary homes may continue to weigh on market sentiment, putting pressure on property sales and prices for the remainder of the year. However, CITIC Securities maintains a more optimistic outlook, stating that supply-demand dynamics in the property market have shown improvement following substantial adjustments. The brokerage anticipates the market could stabilize in 2026.

CITIC Securities further suggests that 2026 may mark a critical year for balance sheet recovery among developers, with some firms potentially reaching the bottom of their profit cycles. Companies positioned for early recovery are typically those with quality urban projects, well-managed investment properties, or valuable financial assets with appreciation potential.