Two of the world's largest mining companies, BHP Billiton (BHP.US) and Rio Tinto PLC (RIO.US), are increasingly focusing on India, viewing it as the next significant growth engine for the global steelmaking industry. This highlights how the biggest iron ore suppliers are preparing for a future beyond China's long-standing dominance. Senior commercial executives from both firms have stated that India's rising demand and expanding capacity can help offset slowing growth in other regions. For over two decades, China has been the primary force in the global steel market.

"I was recently in India. All of our customers are doubling capacity," said Michiel Hovers, BHP's Group Sales and Marketing Officer, during a speech at the Singapore International Ferrous Week on Tuesday. "It is happening, it is real."

As the property-driven expansion in China cools, India is emerging as the most critical growth market for the steel sector. The Indian government has set a production target of 500 million tonnes by 2047, nearly tripling last year's crude steel output of 165 million tonnes, though this remains far below China's 961 million tonnes. While per capita consumption of crude steel in the world's most populous nation is still significantly lower than in China, rapid urbanization and government-backed infrastructure spending are expected to drive demand growth for years to come. This creates an opportunity for the global mining giants that supply iron ore and metallurgical coal.

"We are only at the very early stages of the India growth story," Hovers said, adding that BHP is "well placed to support" this expansion.

Earlier at the same event, Bold Baatar, Rio Tinto's Chief Commercial Officer, stated that over the next decade, the iron ore market can anticipate "material demand growth from the Global South, particularly India and ASEAN countries." He noted this would help counterbalance the effects of stagnant real estate demand. He added that the global market would require approximately 950 million tonnes of new iron ore capacity, not only to meet this new demand but also to address depletion at existing mines.

Baatar argued that analysts have consistently underestimated the resilience of the iron ore market, with forecasters failing to fully account for supply risks, declining ore quality, and the durability of Chinese steel production.