The CEO of Kuwait Petroleum Corporation stated that a blockade of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz would impact the global energy supply chain, with effects rippling through worldwide supply networks. Analysts from Goldman Sachs noted, "The market's reaction may reflect some relief regarding the potential risks of prolonged disruptions and damage to energy assets. However, severe disruptions persist, with oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz almost completely halted." China Securities previously released a research report indicating that the U.S. easing of sanctions on Iranian crude oil is a short-term negative but long-term positive for the oil shipping market. On March 20th, the U.S. granted a 30-day sanctions exemption for 140 million barrels of Iranian crude oil at sea to curb high oil prices. In the short term, floating storage crude oil around Asia will be discharged intensively, temporarily releasing shipping capacity. In the medium to long term, transit risks in the Strait of Hormuz are heightened, Iran has no additional crude oil supply, and Asian refineries will seek alternative sources from the Atlantic Basin, leading to longer routes and increased ton-mile demand for oil tankers.

According to a latest research report from CITIC Securities, from March 20th to 24th, the number of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz was 2/1/5/7/3 (compared to 127 on February 27th). In the past three days, two product tankers passed through the strait, while some crude oil tankers entering and exiting the strait and the Persian Gulf turned off their AIS signals, resulting in missing positioning data. This indicates preliminary signs of a "partial recovery in transit capacity." Based on previous reports, rerouted crude oil volumes via Yanbu, Fujairah, and Omani ports are estimated at 6 to 7 million barrels per day. Assuming transit capacity recovers to 40% of pre-conflict levels and considering demand substitution from the Red Sea and the U.S. Gulf, the actual demand gap is expected to shrink to below 10%.

Attention should be paid to marginal changes in the Strait of Hormuz's transit capacity. Short-term adjustments in supply chain methods are lengthening shipping distances, and the release of U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve volumes is expected to drive up TD22 (U.S. Gulf-China) freight rates. CITIC Securities research believes that once the strait's transit capacity partially recovers, inventory replenishment demand could also act as a catalyst for an upward cycle. Oil shipping companies' profits are expected to reach a new high in 2026.

Leading oil shipping company: COSCO SHIP ENGY (01138): COSCO SHIP ENGY (01138.HK) announced its annual results for the period ending December 31, 2025. Revenue reached 237.01 billion yuan (RMB), a year-on-year increase of 2.3%. Profit attributable to equity holders of the company was 4.037 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.2% year-on-year. Basic earnings per share were 82.62 fen, and a final dividend of 38 fen per share is proposed. Goldman Sachs released a report expressing optimism about the current supercycle for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs). They project potential upside of 36% for COSCO SHIP ENGY's A-shares (600026.SH) and 51% for its H-shares (01138) from current levels, citing tight vessel supply, oil inventory replenishment, trade route diversions, and significantly enhanced pricing power due to increased market concentration in the VLCC sector. The bank raised its full-year 2026 VLCC Time Charter Equivalent (TCE) rate forecast from $80,000 per day to $150,000 per day. It also increased its profit forecasts for COSCO SHIP ENGY for 2026 and 2027 by 81% and 59% respectively, to 13 billion yuan and 11 billion yuan.