Spot gold is trading near $4,333 per ounce on August 14, retreating from the previous high of $4,441. After a wave of profit-taking from long positions overnight, the decline continued today, with prices dipping to a low of $4,311. Substantial liquidation of bullish positions has pushed the market into a corrective phase following the sharp rally. On the macroeconomic front, the CPI data triggered a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" dynamic, as U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index rebounded, prompting a concentrated exit of long positions. Despite this, ongoing central bank gold purchases provide long-term support, while geopolitical risks in the Middle East help limit the downside. The focus now shifts to upcoming speeches by Federal Reserve officials for clues on monetary policy stance.
On the daily chart, the medium-term bullish structure is under pressure, with the 5-day moving average turning lower to $4,370, shifting from support to near-term resistance. The 10-day moving average has dropped to $4,281, now serving as a key defense level for the ongoing tug-of-war between bulls and bears. The previous session closed with a large bearish candle, indicating a concentrated release of selling pressure. The MACD on the daily chart shows a bearish crossover at elevated levels, with the green histogram expanding, while the RSI has rapidly fallen to around the 50-neutral line. After the continuous rally, selling pressure has been unleashed, marking a deep correction within the broader uptrend. A trend reversal is not yet confirmed, and the direction hinges on whether the 10-day moving average holds.
On the 4-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands are opening downward, with gold trading near the lower band. The KDJ indicator continues to decline, approaching oversold territory. The upward slope of medium- and long-term moving averages has clearly slowed, while all short-term moving averages are pressing down on the price. On the 1-hour chart, consecutive bearish candles have pulled the price away from the moving averages, creating conditions for a potential oversold bounce. Integrating multiple timeframes: the daily chart shows a bullish correction under pressure, the 4-hour chart favors bears, and the hourly chart indicates a technical rebound is needed. With no major data releases today, the market is expected to focus on technical consolidation. Near-term support levels are at $4,330 and $4,310; resistance is at $4,365 and $4,370. Trading strategy: go short near $4,340-45 rebound, with a stop-loss above $4,350. If the rebound is stronger, add to the short position near $4,360-65, with a stop-loss above $4,370, targeting a partial reduction near $4,320, with remaining positions aiming for $4,300 and $4,280. Consider going long near a pullback to $4,280.
Spot silver is currently trading around $63.42 per ounce, following gold in a rapid decline from its recent high. On the daily chart, short-term moving averages have turned downward, forming bearish pressure, with the 5-day moving average at $64.70 acting as resistance. The key swing support lies at $62.80. The previous session closed with a large bearish candle, and the MACD has formed a bearish crossover at high levels, with the green histogram expanding. The RSI is falling quickly, indicating fading bullish momentum and testing the medium-term bullish structure. On the 4-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands are opening downward, with silver trading near the lower band. The KDJ continues to decline, and all short-term moving averages are above the price, breaking the uptrend and favoring bears. The 1-hour chart shows consecutive bearish candles, with the price well below the moving averages and indicators in oversold territory, suggesting a technical rebound is needed. Integrating multiple timeframes, the daily chart confirms a correction, the 4-hour chart favors bears, and the hourly chart expects a rebound. If silver can hold above $64.70, the correction may be ending; a decisive break below $61.90 would open further downside. Specific trading actions will be based on real-time signals.