Since late August, maize price trends in North China and the Northeast have diverged sharply, driven by differing supply-demand fundamentals and market expectations. Prices in North China have declined due to increased supply, while the Northeast has seen a rebound fueled by production reduction expectations and holders' reluctance to sell.

As the new maize crop approaches peak market availability, national prices are expected to follow a seasonal downtrend. Given that new crop grain in North China currently offers better cost-effectiveness, maize prices in the Northeast could face more significant downward adjustments.

Regional Price Movements Diverge Ahead of New Crop Supply

From late August to early September, North China's maize prices trended lower, whereas Northeast prices bottomed out and rebounded. The fundamental driver was a shift in market expectations and supply-demand balances between the regions. In North China, the arrival of spring-planted and garlic-rotation maize, combined with the release of old crop reserves, increased market supply. Downstream enterprises maintained only essential demand, creating a loose supply-demand dynamic that pushed prices down.

In contrast, the Northeast saw prices rebound slightly. Futures market gains, expectations of a reduced new crop, and continuous depletion of old crop inventories prompted traders to hold back supplies, temporarily reducing availability. Data shows the price gap between the Northeast and North China has been narrowing. By September 14, the average price in the Northeast had surpassed North China by 3 yuan per metric ton, weakening the competitive edge of Northeast maize for outbound shipments and reducing transaction volumes. From September 1 to 15, the average price spread between North and Northeast China was 24 yuan per ton, down 32 yuan per ton compared to August, a decrease of 57%.

Shandong Processing Enterprises See Higher Volumes at Lower Prices

Purchasing activity at Shandong's deep-processing enterprises provides a strong barometer for North China's supply-demand balance. In the first half of September, the morning queue of vehicles at these enterprises totaled 10,907, a 95% increase from the first half of August. Concurrently, their average maize purchase price fell 3% month-on-month to 2,283 yuan per ton. The significant rise in vehicle queues indicates both increased market supply and a lack of incremental demand from buyers.

Current new crop pricing highlights the regional disparity. In Shandong, new maize with 14%-15% moisture content is priced at 2,080-2,140 yuan per ton for loading, meeting first-grade standards with high bulk density and no mold or toxins. In Jinzhou, Liaoning, new grain with 15% moisture is offered at around 2,130 yuan per ton. With freight costs between the two regions at roughly 130 yuan per ton, Shandong's new crop clearly offers higher value. This cost advantage limits the outflow of Northeast grain to other markets.

National Prices Poised for Seasonal Decline as Harvest Peaks

Survey data indicates that opening prices for the new crop in the Northeast have followed a pattern of starting high and then declining. Purchase prices at Jinzhou Port have already dropped by about 90 yuan per ton, and some deep-processing enterprises in Heilongjiang have cut new crop purchase prices by roughly 35 yuan per ton. Before the main harvest arrives, these Northeast enterprises are limiting new purchases, focusing instead on consuming existing inventories and contracted grain.

From late September, machine-harvested grain volumes will increase significantly in eastern Liaoning and Heilongjiang. Downstream processors and southern consuming regions have limited tolerance for high-priced grain, suggesting prices will decline seasonally. As the Northeast cannot absorb its full output locally, a substantial portion must flow to North China and the south. Given the competitive pricing of North China's new crop, Northeast maize prices may fall more steeply than market expectations. If grain circulates primarily within the region, local processors will likely drive down procurement costs to protect their margins.

In the latter half of September, as new grain continues to enter the market in both regions, supply is expected to rise while demand remains flat, indicating further price softening across the board. By the first half of October, when the new crop hits the market in full force, the average national maize price is projected to be around 100 yuan per ton lower than the levels seen on September 15.

In summary, as the new crop gradually enters the market, increasing supply and a pervasive bearish sentiment will drive national maize prices down seasonally. With North China's new crop offering better quality at lower prices, the Northeast's ability to ship grain outbound will be constrained, potentially leading to a larger-than-expected price correction in that region. Market participants should closely monitor weather conditions during this critical harvest and listing period.