Citigroup has released a research report indicating that the increasing frequency of extreme heatwaves in Europe is becoming a structural driver for a multi-year uptrend in air conditioner penetration rates. Current household air conditioner penetration in Europe is only around 20%, significantly lower than the approximately 90% seen in the United States and Japan. The bank maintains its preferred stock order within the Chinese home appliance sector, listing Midea Group Co.,Ltd. (00300) first, followed by Haier Smart Home Co., Ltd. (06690) and Gree Electric Appliances Inc. of Zhuhai (000651.SZ).

The report anticipates that widespread heatwaves across Europe will deliver a positive surprise for Midea Group, forecasting that its second-quarter consumer HVAC sales in Europe will grow by more than 20% year-over-year. Concurrently, Citigroup expects Midea's group sales to achieve mid-to-high single-digit percentage year-on-year growth by 2026, with cash returns to shareholders—encompassing both dividends and share buybacks—projected to reach 100% of net profit. The bank has set a target price of HK$126.3 for Midea's H-shares and issued a "Buy" rating.

Regarding Haier Smart Home, the report notes its substantial European platform scale but points out that its exposure to the air conditioning business is smaller than Midea's. Haier's management expects the company's HVAC sales in Europe to achieve double-digit percentage growth by 2026. Citigroup has assigned a target price of HK$28.9 to Haier's H-shares with a "Buy" rating.

For Gree Electric, overseas revenue constitutes only about 15% of group sales, indicating a sales structure more heavily weighted toward the Chinese market compared to Midea and Haier. Although consumer appliances, primarily air conditioners, account for roughly 78% of group sales, Gree's contribution from own-brand sales in Europe is lower than that of its peers. Consequently, the company is positioned to benefit relatively less from the emerging European air conditioner growth cycle.