Record Nonfarm Hiring Fails to Boost Market as AI Anxiety Drives Trading, S&P 500 Misses All-Time High

Stock News
02/12

U.S. stocks relinquished early gains to close lower on Wednesday, as concerns over artificial intelligence disrupting multiple sectors overshadowed a strong employment report. The S&P 500 ended slightly down after nearing a record closing high during the session. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 rose 0.3%, having climbed as much as 1% intraday, while the CBOE Volatility Index hovered near 18.

The post-jobs report rally was somewhat unexpected, given that markets have recently been more focused on the Federal Reserve than the economy itself. The sell-off was primarily concentrated in the technology sector, continuing a trend observed over recent months where international and value stocks have led gains. An index tracking the so-called "Magnificent Seven" fell 0.6%, and an ETF tracking software stocks dropped 2.6%. Software shares have been under pressure for more than a week amid fears that AI could disrupt the industry, prompting investors to shift toward companies with business models seen as less vulnerable to AI substitution.

Real estate services stocks also declined on Wednesday as markets assessed their exposure to AI-driven changes. CBRE Group dropped 12%, with Jones Lang LaSalle and Cushman & Wakefield also falling. The sector is the latest to be swept into what analysts describe as "AI panic trading," following sell-offs in software, private credit, wealth management, and insurance brokerage stocks over the past week.

Market attention has now turned to Friday’s Consumer Price Index release. JPMorgan's trading desk suggests there is a 70% chance the S&P 500 will rise if core CPI meets or falls below expectations.

Growth and momentum stocks are facing the most pressure as expectations grow that interest rates will remain higher for longer. This represents another instance of "good news turning bad"—the stronger the labor market, the less likely it is that yields will decline. Stocks initially rose following the better-than-expected jobs data. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm payrolls increased by 130,000 in January, the largest gain in over a year, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.3%. The report, delayed due to a partial government shutdown, signals a stabilizing labor market after a year of rising unemployment and subdued hiring.

Following the jobs data, traders widely expect the first interest rate cut to occur in July, compared to earlier expectations for June. Bets on an April cut had briefly increased after retail sales figures missed forecasts. It is likely the Federal Reserve will maintain current rates, though potential Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh could face pressure from the administration to lower rates.

The U.S. market is seen as a mosaic of conflicting signals: while many economists have raised growth forecasts, household financial strain is becoming evident, and consumer staples firms have noted that lower-income shoppers are cutting back. Additionally, with significant downward revisions to 2025 data, investors may be hesitant to place strong bets based on a single month’s figures.

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