Oil prices plunged on Monday, wiping out last week's gains, amid signs that OPEC+ may increase production again in October.

WTI crude futures fell 4% intraday, marking the largest decline since June. At the close, WTI November crude futures dropped $2.27, down 3.45%, to settle at $63.45 per barrel. Brent November crude futures fell $2.16, down 3.08%, to close at $67.97 per barrel.

According to sources cited by media outlets, the OPEC+ alliance led by Saudi Arabia is considering raising production beyond the planned increase of 137,000 barrels per day scheduled for next month.

However, while such production increases could further oversupply an already surplus-expected market, this move would also draw attention to whether member countries' production capacity has reached its limits.

RBC Capital Markets analysts wrote in a report: "We believe the most likely outcome is that OPEC+ will again decide to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November at the October 5 meeting. Given that many oil-producing countries other than Saudi Arabia have actually reached their capacity limits, future OPEC+ production increases will be far below publicly announced figures."

Despite OPEC and its allies attempting to regain market share rather than maintain prices, crude oil is still expected to achieve monthly and quarterly gains. Geopolitical tensions remain a supporting factor for oil prices.

However, geopolitical risks declined on Monday. After meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu at the White House, U.S. President Trump announced that Israel had agreed to the U.S.-proposed "20-point plan" to end the Gaza conflict. Once the nearly two-year war in the Middle East region, which accounts for about one-third of global crude supply, ends, the "war premium" in oil prices could be partially eliminated.

Regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank stated: "Major institutions still expect crude oil prices to weaken in the coming months. As long as Russian supply has not become an actual disruption, traders will find it difficult to form bullish expectations in the short term, especially under the risk of OPEC+ potentially increasing production again."

Meanwhile, crude oil exports from northern Iraq through pipelines to Turkish ports have recently resumed after the pipeline had been shut down for more than two years. Amer Al-Mehairi, general manager of Iraq's North Oil Company, said exports are continuing.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that crude oil will experience record supply surplus in 2026, as OPEC+ continues to restore production while competitors outside the organization also increase output. Goldman Sachs stated that despite China's oil stockpiling, Brent crude could fall to the mid-$50 range next year.