TMC Q2 2025 Earnings Call Summary and Q&A Highlights: Strategic Investments and Regulatory Progress Propel Future Growth

Earnings Call
08/15

[Management View]
TMC management emphasized the strategic importance of recent investments and regulatory advancements. The combined net present value (NPV) of $23.6 billion underscores the project's economic viability, with $5.5 billion from the Nori D area and $18.1 billion from additional areas. The company is targeting Q4 2027 for production start, supported by strategic investments and partnerships.

[Outlook]
Management provided guidance for steady-state production at 10.8 million wet tons annually from 2031 to 2043, scaling to 12 million tons in select years. The company plans to expand US refining capacity, aiming for EBITDA margins to approach 50% by 2040. Strategic investments from Korea’s Inc. and partnerships with Nauru and Tonga are expected to bolster operational progress.

[Financial Performance]
TMC reported a net loss of $74.3 million for Q2 2025, compared to $20.2 million in Q2 2024. Free cash flow improved significantly, with negative $10.7 million in Q2 2025 versus negative $122 million in Q2 2024, attributed to lower vendor payments and increased environmental spending.

[Q&A Highlights]
Question 1: Can you comment on the work needed to reach the feasibility level and the timeline?
Answer: The focus is on finalizing agreements with Allseas and preparing for the investment decision to order long-lead items for the Q4 2027 production target. The company is exploring funding opportunities from US government departments to support the timeline.

Question 2: What are the next steps in the NOAA certification process?
Answer: The administration has introduced changes to fast-track permitting. The company expects amended changes to be adopted, with regular updates from the regulator. The environmental impact study is a key component, with significant data already gathered.

Question 3: What factors could accelerate or slow down progress towards production in 2027?
Answer: The government is supportive, and the board is deploying capital carefully. Supply chain issues are managed by Allseas. Regulatory risks are minimal, with strong encouragement from the administration.

Question 4: Are there any geopolitical risks or surprises in support from the government?
Answer: Support from the administration has been stronger than anticipated, with regular White House meetings. Korea’s Inc. has become convinced of the US investment opportunity, supporting critical mineral needs.

Question 5: How will the $492 million CapEx for production be split among partners?
Answer: The pre-feasibility study includes contingencies, and the company is working with Allseas to finalize details. US government programs may provide funding for both offshore and onshore components.

Question 6: What is the difference between provisional and final approval, and how does it affect capital expenditures?
Answer: Provisional approval would boost confidence, but the board is ready to spend based on signals from the administration. Final approval is expected by the end of the year.

Question 7: How do new NOAA regulations expedite approval processes?
Answer: The regulations allow concurrent review of exploration and commercial recovery permits, significantly reducing the permitting timeframe.

[Sentiment Analysis]
Analysts and management expressed optimism about regulatory progress and strategic partnerships. The tone was positive, with confidence in achieving production targets and securing necessary funding.

[Quarterly Comparison]
| Metric | Q2 2025 | Q2 2024 |
|--------|---------|---------|
| Net Loss | $74.3M | $20.2M |
| Free Cash Flow | -$10.7M | -$122M |
| G&A Expenses | $11.5M | $7.9M |

[Risks and Concerns]
Regulatory risks are mitigated by strong government support and a clear legal process. Supply chain issues are managed by partners, and geopolitical factors are favorable.

[Final Takeaway]
TMC is strategically positioned for future growth, with significant advancements in project economics and regulatory compliance. The company's partnerships and investments provide a robust foundation for achieving production targets and expanding refining capacity. Management's focus on securing funding and navigating regulatory processes underscores their commitment to long-term success.

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