The liquor industry reported revenue of 310.28 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, down 5.48% year-on-year, with net profit at 122.69 billion yuan, a 6.63% decline. By segment, nationally recognized brands outperformed regional players, which in turn surpassed sub-premium products in both revenue and profit growth.

In Q3 2025 alone, the sector's revenue fell 18.4% to 76.31 billion yuan, while net profit dropped 22% to 28.21 billion yuan. Revenue growth ranked as nationally recognized brands > regional players > sub-premium products, whereas profit growth followed nationally recognized brands > sub-premium products > regional players.

A CICC research report noted that the F&B industry has entered a "new normal" this year, with weak overall consumption demand driving trends toward cost-effectiveness, functionality, health focus, and emotional consumption. Leading companies prioritized stable operations and high-quality development, improving shareholder returns and operational efficiency.

The liquor sector faced persistently soft demand amid regulatory changes, triggering significant supply-demand adjustments. While mass-market food segments diverged, beverages and snacks showed relative resilience. Looking ahead to 2026, CICC expects a weak recovery with pronounced divergence, where growth will hinge on product innovation, fragmented channel strategies, and consumer base expansion. Firms with strong branding, innovation capabilities, channel control, and supply chain efficiency are poised for sustainable growth.

CICC projects liquor industry financials to bottom out and improve in 2026, with a gradual upturn. Policy headwinds are expected to fade, allowing consumption scenarios to recover steadily alongside pro-consumption measures. Year-on-year growth may turn positive from a low 2025 base, with tiered recovery likely starting H1 2026—benefiting category leaders with fundamental strength and long-term market share potential.

GF Securities highlighted widening performance gaps among liquor firms in Q3, with brand-leading players demonstrating resilience. As Q3 earnings pressures ease, the sector could enter 2026 with lighter inventory burdens and higher-quality growth.

Notable HK-listed liquor stock: - ZJLD (06979): Its new premium product "Da Zhen" launched with 370 million yuan in prepayments and over 2,800 signed distributors nationwide. Huatai Securities noted the product synergizes with existing offerings like Zhen 15 and Zhen 30 series, potentially forming a third growth pillar through competitive pricing.