In May 2026, Pop Mart's same-store sales increased by 12% year-on-year, with a month-on-month rise of 11% supported by the extended Labor Day holiday. Compared to sales levels in the second half of 2025, sales in May this year were 1% higher. However, Deutsche Bank views the sequential recovery from April as primarily driven by the holiday period rather than a signal of strengthening underlying end-user demand. Channel checks indicate a continued improvement in inventory supply at offline stores, marking a significant reversal from the widespread shortages seen in 2025. Despite the holiday boost to offline sales, Deutsche Bank's latest online sales monitoring data shows that Pop Mart's online sales have experienced their first year-on-year decline since 2024.
Looking ahead to the second half of 2026, a key market debate centers on whether new product launches can offset signs of weakening core demand. Investors are closely focused on two upcoming product releases: the "THEMONSTERS × FIFA Collaboration Series," which will test Pop Mart's ability to expand its collector base using a global sports IP, and the "Labubu 4.0 – THEMONSTERS Vintage Barber Shop Series," which has seen multiple delays and carries high market expectations.
However, data from the secondary market trading platform QianDao shows that the Labubu series' secondary market performance has already weakened. Three regular versions are trading below their official launch price of ¥159, with two less popular variants trading around ¥107. The first-day sell-through rate on e-commerce platforms was only 30% to 50% of the rate for major IP launches earlier in 2026, and inventory was not sold out immediately. Typically, new products command a premium at launch, with prices gradually declining as supply increases. The fact that this new product has lost its premium potential even before its official release suggests a lukewarm response from collectors. Further price declines are likely once larger quantities are distributed post-launch.
Deutsche Bank notes that social media sentiment is also turning negative, with users pointing to weaker design and a lack of innovation, indicating collectors are becoming more selective and rational.
The bank believes the weak performance of the "Labubu 4.0 – THEMONSTERS Vintage Barber Shop Series" signals that the core IP cycle is entering a more fragile phase. It forecasts a 2% year-on-year decline in Pop Mart's 2026 revenue, with net profit of ¥1.15 billion. Deutsche Bank maintains its "Sell" rating and HK$140 price target.