December 12 – Recent market activity has remained subdued, with Bitcoin (BTC) continuing to trade within a narrow range, leaving investors unimpressed. However, multiple technical signals are quietly accumulating, and CWG Markets FX suggests that the market may be gearing up for a directional move.

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected in its latest meeting, but the market reaction was muted, with BTC maintaining its sideways trend. Despite the Fed’s hawkish tone, the U.S. dollar faced selling pressure. CWG Markets FX notes that BTC’s daily chart structure has barely changed since the meeting, with prices still confined within a minor rebound channel amid a broader downtrend. The technical trading logic is straightforward: A breakout above the primary descending trendline could signal the end of the correction cycle from all-time highs, while a drop below the minor ascending channel may reinforce the larger bearish structure, leading to deeper declines.

From a technical perspective, the MACD histogram (set to 50/100/9 to assess medium-to-long-term trends) is nearing a positive crossover, often interpreted as a potential bullish momentum signal. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index has weakened post-meeting, hitting a low of 98.13 before rebounding slightly to 98.36. CWG Markets FX observes that the dollar index’s MACD histogram has turned negative, indicating a clear shift to bearish momentum.

In equities, the Nasdaq has stabilized after its November pullback, holding above its 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages, fostering a supportive environment for riskier assets. BTC’s bearish momentum also appears to be waning, with prices holding steady despite negative regulatory headlines, bolstering bullish sentiment.

If BTC breaks out upward, resistance is expected between $97,000 and $108,000, coinciding with key moving averages and the Ichimoku cloud. Notably, ETF flows remain lackluster, with no single-day net inflows exceeding $500 million over the past month. Cumulative net inflows since late November stand at just $219 million, far below earlier large-scale redemptions.

While the Nasdaq’s strength is a tailwind for BTC, their correlation has become asymmetric—BTC falls faster when the Nasdaq declines but lags during rallies, suggesting caution for bulls. CWG Markets FX maintains that while technicals lean slightly bullish, a downside breakout cannot be ruled out. A drop below the minor ascending channel could retest support near $80,000.

Overall, Bitcoin appears to be at a pivotal juncture, with bulls and bears approaching a decisive moment. CWG Markets FX will closely monitor whether prices can leverage macro and technical catalysts to break free from the current consolidation.