Abstract

Aurubis Ag will release its quarterly results on August 6, 2026, Pre-Market, with investors focused on revenue acceleration, earnings recovery, and the contribution from recycling investments to near-term profitability and cash flow.

Market Forecast

Consensus points to a sharp rebound in the quarter: revenue is estimated at 6.21 billion euros, up 33.24% year over year, while EPS is projected at 2.24, up 150.17% year over year; EBIT is forecast at 137.70 million euros, up 160.53% year over year. No formal guidance or consistent estimates are available for gross profit margin or net profit margin, so margin modeling hinges on realized premiums, by-product credits, and hedging effectiveness rather than published targets.

The company’s main business is expected to maintain volume stability with a pricing and mix tailwind, while operational efficiency and by-product credits may shape gross profitability within the quarter. Multimetal Recycling appears to be the most promising profit-expansion lever in the medium term, supported by the July 3, 2026 investment plan to expand processing capacity and an improving flow of recyclable feedstock, with last quarter revenue of 1.24 billion euros.

Last Quarter Review

Aurubis Ag delivered revenue of 6.04 billion euros, a gross profit margin of 15.15%, net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.48 billion euros, a net profit margin of 7.92%, and adjusted EPS of 2.15, up 24.28% year over year. Net profit rose 48.76% quarter on quarter, signaling a sequential rebound in core profitability and better operating leverage through the income statement. The main business mix featured Custom Smelting & Products at 5.35 billion euros and Multimetal Recycling at 1.24 billion euros, with inter-segment offsets reflected in consolidation.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main Business: Custom Smelting & Products

Revenue for Custom Smelting & Products reached 5.35 billion euros last quarter, and the current quarter’s top line is forecast to increase to 6.21 billion euros at the group level, implying that the smelting and product mix remains the core revenue anchor. Within the quarter, realized product premiums, the throughput of complex concentrates, and the balance between cathode and product shipments are likely to influence gross contribution. As volumes stabilize, the efficiency of conversion costs and the alignment of sales timing with favorable pricing windows can help maintain or modestly expand contribution margins even without explicit gross margin guidance. Cost absorption will be a focal point; if fixed-cost dilution is aided by higher throughput or smoother logistics execution, the gross profit line could hold up against input volatility. By-product credits, particularly from precious metals and sulfuric acid, can make a meaningful difference in quarterly profitability; their recognition timing could add lumpiness to reported EBIT and net income. Management’s hedging program should continue to dampen the volatility of cash flows and reported earnings, but its effectiveness will still depend on alignment between hedge positions and physical flows. Working capital dynamics are another determinant: inventory builds when feedstock deliveries outpace shipments may temporarily weigh on free cash flow but can set up subsequent quarters for stronger operating cash release. The lack of published gross margin targets makes modeling sensitive to operational execution, yet the prior quarter’s 15.15% gross margin and the 48.76% quarter-on-quarter net profit lift suggest that operational leverage can materialize quickly when throughput, mix, and by-product contributions line up.

Most Promising Business: Multimetal Recycling

Multimetal Recycling posted 1.24 billion euros of revenue last quarter, and the July 3, 2026 announcement of a 190 million euros investment to expand recycling processing capacity underscores the strategic priority to grow this earnings stream. The investment supports a richer flow of recyclable materials and a broader slate of input types, which can increase flexibility in feedstock procurement and enhance margins through higher metal recovery yields. In the near term, commissioning and ramp-up timelines typically determine the speed at which incremental volumes translate into revenue and EBIT, while depreciation and start-up costs can moderate early contribution; however, the visibility on capacity build-out often improves investor confidence and can influence valuation multiples. As the mix tilts toward higher recycled content, the company’s recovery efficiency, loss minimization, and scheduling discipline become key drivers of margin per unit processed. Commercially, expanding customer relationships for scrap supply and offtake can improve pricing power for both inputs and outputs, thereby lifting realized spreads regardless of spot price swings within the quarter. The segment’s structural logic is to decouple a portion of earnings from pure price movements by leaning on recovery rates, procurement optionality, and by-product value capture; success here can make quarterly results more resilient. The data from the prior quarter show that recycling is already a substantial revenue contributor, and, paired with the investment plan, it represents one of the clearest internal levers for medium-term EBIT growth. For the quarter being reported, even limited initial gains—such as better feed availability or improved scheduling—could translate into incremental gross profit, setting the stage for more pronounced benefits in subsequent periods.

Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

Earnings sensitivity to realized spreads remains the dominant driver for the quarter: with revenue estimated at 6.21 billion euros and EPS projected at 2.24, any deviation will likely stem from the interplay between product premiums, by-product credits, and hedging outcomes. Investors will parse the bridge from revenue to EBIT—forecast at 137.70 million euros—to understand whether the expected 160.53% year-over-year EBIT growth is coming primarily from operating leverage, recovery efficiency, or a favorable mix of high-margin products. Cash conversion will also be in focus; working capital swings linked to inventory and receivables can obscure the underlying profitability trend if shipments and invoicing cadence shift late in the quarter. Any commentary on the progression of the 190 million euros recycling expansion can influence sentiment, as milestones such as procurement contracts, permitting, or initial installation would support the visibility of future earnings streams. The previous quarter’s 48.76% quarter-on-quarter net profit improvement sets a high bar for sequential momentum; sustaining or improving on that momentum with the current print would reinforce the thesis that recent operational measures are translating into durable profitability. EPS elasticity to EBIT will be monitored closely; with EPS expected to be up 150.17% year over year and EBIT up 160.53%, investors may look for signals on interest expense, tax rate, and any non-recurring items that shape the bottom line. Finally, timing effects—shipment phasing across month-end, the allocation of hedging gains or losses across revenue versus cost lines, and the recognition of by-product credits—can create short-term noise that the market may look through if management provides a clear run-rate narrative.

Analyst Opinions

Bullish views account for the clear majority of recent commentary. On January 16, 2026, Kepler Cheuvreux raised its target price for Aurubis Ag to 162 euros from 136 euros, signaling confidence in the company’s earnings recovery path and reinvestment strategy. Multiple previews published in the first half of the year emphasized a constructive setup for this quarter, citing revenue growth expectations around 33% year over year, EPS recovery toward 2.24, and EBIT expansion to roughly 137.70 million euros. This perspective aligns with the company’s prior-quarter momentum—gross margin of 15.15% and a 48.76% quarter-on-quarter jump in net profit—which, in the eyes of bullish analysts, demonstrate that operational improvements are increasingly visible in reported results. The July 3, 2026 announcement of a 190 million euros investment to expand recycling processing capacity has also been interpreted favorably by bullish institutions, as it supports medium-term growth in a business line that already generated 1.24 billion euros of revenue last quarter. These analysts argue that a stronger recycling footprint can improve earnings quality by deepening feedstock flexibility and enhancing recovery economics, thereby buttressing margins through cycles in realized spreads. Bullish commentary also highlights the projected EPS surge of 150.17% year over year alongside EBIT growth of 160.53% year over year for the quarter at hand, framing the print as a test of improving operational leverage rather than a pure price-driven rebound. In their view, if management delivers results close to the 6.21 billion euros revenue estimate and provides constructive color on the cadence of recycling capacity build-out, the market is likely to reward the stock with higher earnings visibility and potentially a firmer valuation framework. The pre-announcement market wobble on June 10, 2026, when the shares declined 6.2% in a volatile session, has been downplayed by bullish commentators as noise relative to the stronger underlying profit trajectory implied by recent quarters and current estimates. Put together, the ratio of bullish to bearish viewpoints in recent coverage skews decisively positive, with the dominant case grounded in accelerating EPS, a visible EBIT ramp, and a clear capital deployment plan into recycling that can expand return on invested capital over time.