According to data from U.S. investment bank Jefferies Financial Group Inc., Airbus delivered 72 aircraft in September, a decline of 1% year-on-year, but 4 more than the bank had previously expected.

Year-to-date deliveries have grown 8% compared with the same period last year. To reach its full-year target of 870 deliveries, Airbus still needs fourth-quarter deliveries to rise 13% year-on-year.

Jefferies Financial Group Inc. expects that lower delivery volumes, a changed aircraft mix and technical factors could weigh on Airbus's commercial aircraft business earnings before interest and taxes in the third quarter by 100 million to 200 million euros.

September Deliveries of 72 Jets Leave Full-Year Target Under Pressure

Based on Jefferies' tally, the 72 aircraft Airbus delivered in September comprised 8 A220s, 59 A320neo-family jets, 2 A330neos and 3 A350s. A320-family deliveries came in 3 above expectations, while A220 deliveries were 1 above.

On the order side, Airbus booked new orders for 17 aircraft in September and saw 3 cancellations, for net new orders of 14. So far this year, the ratio of net orders to deliveries stands at 2.02 times.

Although cumulative deliveries have kept growing this year, Airbus still needs to accelerate deliveries in the fourth quarter to reach its full-year target of 870 aircraft.

A321 Share of Deliveries Declines, Third-Quarter Profit May Be Dragged Down

Airbus's third-quarter deliveries fell by 5 aircraft compared with the same period last year, and the delivery mix also weakened. The share of A321s within A320-family deliveries dropped to 64% from 67% in last year's third quarter.

Because different models contribute different levels of profitability, the change in product mix could affect the profit performance of the commercial aircraft business.

Jefferies Financial Group Inc. expects delivery volumes, model mix and technical factors to combine to have an adverse impact of 100 million to 200 million euros on Airbus's third-quarter commercial aircraft business EBIT.

Aircraft Inventory Rises by 23 Jets, Cash Flow Faces Pressure

As of the end of the third quarter, Airbus had 66 aircraft in inventory that were capable of flying but had not yet been delivered, an increase of 23 from the end of the second quarter.

Jefferies Financial Group Inc. estimates that in addition to those aircraft, Airbus has roughly 35 to 40 unfinished aircraft fuselages in inventory.

Because aircraft payments are typically collected only after delivery is completed, an increase in finished but undelivered aircraft in inventory could tie up more working capital.

Jefferies Financial Group Inc. believes the 23-aircraft increase in flyable inventory in the third quarter will put pressure on the company's cash flow.

Overall, while Airbus's September delivery performance beat Jefferies' expectations, lower third-quarter deliveries, a weaker model mix and inventory accumulation could create dual pressure on both earnings and cash flow for the quarter. The pace of fourth-quarter deliveries will be key to achieving the full-year target.