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Key data points reveal that the LME zinc spot premium stands at $88.37 per metric ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by 70 yuan to 26,045 yuan per metric ton, with a spot premium/discount of -15 yuan per ton. Meanwhile, the SMM Guangdong zinc spot price fell 70 yuan to 26,030 yuan per ton, reflecting a spot premium/discount of -65 yuan per ton. In Tianjin, the zinc spot price dropped 80 yuan to 25,980 yuan per ton, with a spot premium/discount of -80 yuan per ton.

On the futures front, the main Shanghai zinc contract opened at 26,210 yuan per ton and settled at 26,250 yuan per ton on September 17, 2026, marking a gain of 105 yuan from the prior session. Intraday trading volume reached 96,883 lots, with open interest at 75,739 lots. The contract peaked at 26,310 yuan per ton and bottomed at 25,930 yuan per ton during the session.

Inventory trends indicate continued drawdowns. As of the same date, total zinc inventories across seven major Chinese regions stood at 213,500 metric tons, a decrease of 9,000 metric tons from the previous period. Additionally, LME zinc inventories were recorded at 114,250 metric tons, up 1,575 metric tons from the prior trading day.

Strategy outlook: With the Federal Reserve's rate hike concluded and zinc prices retreating to levels that buyers find acceptable, purchasing enthusiasm has clearly strengthened, and spot discounts have improved significantly. Consumption is transitioning into peak season, and despite fluctuations in the export delivery window, domestic social inventories remain in a destocking cycle. Downstream operating rates continue to climb, while expectations for domestic consumption stimulus policies are rising.

Support from the mining side remains robust, with the downtrend in ore prices persisting. Sulfuric acid prices have corrected from highs, widening smelting losses, and September output expectations have once again been revised lower. The bottleneck is shifting from mining to smelting. The strategy of buying on dips for hedging remains unchanged, though caution is warranted regarding the impact of crude oil price movements on expectations for the next Fed meeting.

Key risks: 1. Unexpected disruptions in overseas mining supply. 2. Domestic consumption falling short of expectations. 3. Liquidity changes exceeding projections.