On April 20, the gold market last week saw international gold prices open lower but eventually close higher after volatile trading. However, prices failed to break above the 10-week moving average resistance, indicating potential risks of further adjustments and pullbacks. Despite this, geopolitical tensions have shown signs of easing, with Iran announcing the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which has reduced expectations of rising oil prices and inflation concerns. Therefore, any future price declines should be viewed as opportunities to enter long positions, with support levels near key moving averages.

In terms of price movement, gold opened the week lower at $4,717.44 per ounce, dipped to a weekly low of $4,639.54, and then rebounded. By Wednesday, prices reached around $4,870 before pulling back, erasing over $100 in gains. However, on Friday, bullish momentum returned, pushing prices above Wednesday’s high to a weekly peak of $4,889.36. Profit-taking then led to a retreat, with prices closing at $4,835.08. Compared to the previous week’s close of $4,751.00, gold recorded a weekly range of $249.82, gaining $84.08 or 1.77%.

Early-week weakness was driven by the collapse of weekend negotiations, but prices rebounded after the U.S. expressed optimism about resuming talks. However, firm stances from all sides, coupled with better-than-expected initial jobless claims data, limited the rally. On Friday, Iran’s surprise announcement of fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. considering renewed talks within days caused oil and the U.S. dollar to retreat, easing inflation pressures and strengthening expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. This fueled a gold price surge to weekly highs. Nevertheless, cautious remarks from Fed Governor Waller, technical resistance, and profit-taking led to a pullback, resulting in a volatile but overall higher weekly close.

Looking ahead to Monday, April 20, international gold opened more than $40 lower at $4,791.69 per ounce and fell below $4,760. Over the weekend, former U.S. President Donald Trump stated that if no deal with Iran is reached by Wednesday, hostilities could resume. Additionally, Iran’s parliament speaker dismissed Trump’s social media statements as false, refused further talks, and warned that if the U.S. continues blocking Iranian ports, the Strait of Hormuz may not remain open. Meanwhile, U.S. forces fired on an Iranian commercial ship, prompting threats of retaliation. These developments, along with technical resistance, led to a 5% higher opening for crude oil and a lower opening for gold.

However, prices later rebounded, as the impact of these events is seen as short-term. Last Friday’s easing of geopolitical tensions has made the market skeptical of any news-driven moves. Thus, short-term fluctuations—whether upward spikes or downward corrections—are likely temporary. The medium to long-term bullish outlook for gold remains unchanged.

Although the future direction depends on whether sustainable comprehensive agreements can be reached, short-term geopolitical shifts have not undermined gold’s fundamental drivers. These include the reshaping of global order, risks of uncontrolled U.S. debt, central bank gold purchases, expected Fed rate cuts, and a scarcity of safe-haven assets—all typical catalysts for a long-term gold bull market. Even if no U.S.-Iran deal is reached or a 10-day ceasefire in Lebanon fails, disrupting Strait traffic and tightening European energy markets, gold’s bullish prospects are unlikely to change.

Historical experience shows that during conflict escalation or energy channel disruptions, investors often turn to gold to hedge uncertainty. By year-end, gold prices are still expected to target above $6,000, with silver potentially reaching above $150.

Technically, on a monthly chart, gold closed above its rising trendline in March, maintaining a bullish outlook. April’s opening also remains above this trendline. As long as prices do not close below this line, new highs are anticipated. On a weekly chart, last week’s rebound and higher close did not break the 10-week moving average resistance, leaving room for a pullback toward $4,450. A break above this resistance would support a retest of record highs. This week, support lies near the mid-Bollinger Band and the 5-week moving average, making any pullback to these levels a potential buying opportunity.

On a daily chart, Friday’s rebound failed to break the 60-day moving average, and Monday’s lower opening was followed by a bounce from support levels near the 30-day and 100-day moving averages. The 4-hour chart shows prices touching support, with the ZZ indicator suggesting a bottom. Therefore, after Monday’s lower opening, buying on dips for a rebound is favored.

Intraday trading guidance will follow real-time market conditions. Preliminary support and resistance levels for reference are as follows: Gold: Support near $4,760 or $4,720; resistance near $4,810 or $4,843. Silver: Support near $78.80 or $78.25; resistance near $80.55 or $81.20.