Aviation stocks continued their downward trajectory. At the time of writing, AIR CHINA (00753) fell 3.01% to HK$4.51; CHINA EAST AIR (00670) declined 2.53% to HK$3.47; CHINA SOUTH AIR (01055) dropped 2.37% to HK$3.71; and CATHAY PAC AIR (00293) was down 1.33% to HK$11.91.

The decline is attributed to persistent high international oil prices, with Brent crude hovering above $110 per barrel, amid stalled negotiations between the US and Iran. Recent geopolitical tensions, including threats of renewed military action, have contributed to market uncertainty.

Following the May Day holiday, the market has entered a traditional off-peak season. High fuel costs are limiting airlines' ability to stimulate off-peak travel with low fares, leading carriers to actively reduce flight frequencies and raise ticket prices. Data indicates that domestic passenger traffic last week may have fallen by approximately 10% year-on-year, nearing the low point seen during the holiday period. However, domestic load factors remained higher compared to the same period last year. The base domestic airfare increased by about 7% year-on-year, while estimates suggest the total domestic ticket price, including fuel surcharges, rose nearly 20%.

Despite the off-season, demand, as measured by both volume and price, continues to show significant year-on-year growth. Analysts anticipate that supply-demand dynamics and efforts to curb excessive competition will facilitate a more effective pass-through of fuel costs than the market fears. Furthermore, a substantial increase in fares on China-Europe routes is expected to provide carriers like AIR CHINA with a stronger hedge against high oil prices than the broader industry average.