Market nerves, which had been stretched tight, appeared to find momentary relief following a news report. According to multiple media outlets, former US President Donald Trump suggested that talks between the US and Iran could occur within the next two days, with both sides discussing arrangements for a second round of negotiations. Although the specific schedule remains undetermined, the mere mention of "talks" was enough to offer markets a glimmer of hope for a potential easing of the geopolitical conflict that has persisted for months.
Following the news, domestic commodity markets responded positively during the early trading session. Previously pressured precious metals and non-ferrous metals sectors experienced a broad-based recovery. Among them, Shanghai silver futures led the gains, with Shanghai tin and Shanghai nickel also showing strong momentum. Copper and gold prices similarly rebounded significantly from recent lows.
[Market Snapshot: A Rebound in Progress, but with Varied Pace] The specific price movements revealed differing rebound characteristics across the commodities:
The main Shanghai silver contract exhibited a pattern of oscillating upward movement, recently forming a clear rebound channel. Notably, as prices rose this week, a significant increase in open interest was observed, indicating active buying interest was pushing prices higher. However, upon approaching the key psychological level of 20,000 yuan, some resistance emerged, with open interest decreasing intraday, temporarily slowing the upward momentum.
Gold's price action appeared more steady and cautious. While also trending higher in a volatile manner, prices faced persistent pressure near the previous gap area. Taking the main Au2606 contract as an example, it is currently testing resistance near the low from March 19th (approximately 1060). Funds also showed signs of outflow for several hours near this resistance level.
Shanghai tin, Shanghai nickel, and Shanghai copper are all currently within rebound channels and have successfully reclaimed the important 60-day moving average, a key technical support level. Among these, Shanghai nickel demonstrated particular resilience, posting two consecutive solid bullish candles firmly above the 60-day moving average, with prices reaching the upper boundary of the trading range formed since February. Intraday charts for Shanghai nickel showed bullish funds still attempting to push for a breakout. Shanghai tin and Shanghai copper also moved higher in sync, though their momentum appeared slightly less robust compared to Shanghai nickel.
[Behind the Rebound: More Than Just Geopolitical Easing, a Fundamental Resonance] This round of recovery is not solely driven by sentiment repair from receding geopolitical risk premiums, but also resonates with the individual fundamental logics of each commodity.
1. Shanghai Nickel: Costs Elevated by Policy The most significant recent development for nickel originates from Indonesia. The country revised the formula for calculating its mineral benchmark price (HPM), effectively raising the valuation standard for levying "resource taxes" on mining companies.
What was revised? Primarily two points: First, it substantially increased the "value" of nickel ore, raising the calculation coefficient for mainstream 1.6% grade nickel ore from 17% to 30%, with an even more pronounced premium for higher-grade ore. Second, it incorporated the value of associated metals into the tax calculation system, meaning the value of cobalt, iron, and chromium present in the ore will now be factored into the tax base. This implies mining companies may face higher resource tax payments when selling ore.
What is the cost impact? The new regulations are expected to broadly increase nickel production costs. For the mainstream pyrometallurgical process, immediate cash costs could rise to approximately 135,000 yuan per ton. For the hydrometallurgical process, besides being affected by the increased nickel coefficient, the typically higher cobalt content in its ore feedstock presents a "double blow," resulting in greater cost pressure.
2. Shanghai Tin: Persistent Supply-Side Concerns Tin's fundamentals inherently possess some resilience. Domestically, China's tin ingot production in March saw a slight year-on-year decrease of 2.16%, with recycled tin production falling significantly by approximately 25% year-on-year. Regarding inventories, social inventories remain at low levels compared to recent years, indicating a not-so-loose supply situation.
Adding to market concerns are disruptions to overseas supply. On one hand, an explosion recently occurred at a chemical plant in Myanmar's Wa State, prompting local authorities to order a comprehensive suspension of operations and rectification for related factories. This could exacerbate shortages of explosives, potentially affecting the previously anticipated pace of tin mine resumptions in Wa State. On the other hand, ongoing conflict in the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of Congo, a major African production region, has worsened security conditions, with China's embassy again advising citizens to evacuate. These events have intensified market worries about global tin ore supply, providing support for prices.
3. Gold, Silver, Copper: Recovery Amid Easing Geopolitical Pressure For gold and silver, this rebound stems more directly from the reduction in geopolitical pressure. As US-Iran talks commence, tensions around the Strait of Hormuz are expected to ease temporarily, leading to a cooling of market panic and a natural recovery in previously suppressed prices. Among them, silver, with its higher price elasticity, acted as the leading gainer in the rebound. However, from a long-term perspective, the gold-silver ratio may still be within an upward corrective channel.
Copper's rebound is further supported by its own robust fundamentals: the global tight supply situation for copper ore remains unchanged; approximately 20% of smelting capacity using the hydrometallurgical process faces constraints as core production regions (like the DRC) see capacity releases hampered due to the effective halt of sulfur shipments from the Middle East via the Strait of Hormuz; additionally, the vigorous construction of AI computing centers in the US is boosting long-term copper consumption growth prospects. Combined with market concerns over potential trade tariffs, these factors have collectively lifted copper prices.
[Outlook and Risk Control: The Rebound Path May Not Be Smooth] The current market is primarily trading on the logic of "geopolitical easing - price recovery." Looking ahead, besides closely monitoring substantive progress in the potential second round of US-Iran talks, investors should also watch another key theme: how will Federal Reserve officials reassess the current inflation and interest rate environment once geopolitical risks temporarily subside? Their public statements will significantly impact global asset pricing. A speech by FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President John Williams scheduled for around 8:35 PM on Thursday evening is worth attention.
Furthermore, it is important to note that geopolitics itself is highly unpredictable. Recent stances from both Iran and the US have shown frequent shifts and reversals, which will inevitably inject volatility into markets. Therefore, even if prices are in a recovery phase, the process is unlikely to be smooth. In the face of this rebound, it is advisable to maintain rationality, focus on position control, manage risks effectively, and avoid chasing prices higher based solely on short-term improved sentiment.