Abstract

Steel Dynamics will report fourth-quarter results on January 26, 2026 Pre-Market; this preview consolidates recent fundamentals, forecasts, and institutional commentary to frame expectations for revenue, margins, and adjusted EPS.

Market Forecast

Consensus and company-level projections point to fourth-quarter revenue of USD 4.58 billion, a forecast gross profit margin near recent levels, a net profit margin contextualized by projected earnings before interest and taxes, and adjusted EPS of USD 1.80, with year-over-year growth expected at 15.77% for revenue and 40.87% for adjusted EPS. The main business highlight centers on steel operations maintaining the bulk of revenue with stable margin support, while downstream recycling and value-added manufacturing provide resilience amid price volatility. The most promising segment appears to be steel operations by revenue scale, supported by demand recovery signals; segment revenue previously totaled USD 3.65 billion, and ongoing pricing normalization suggests positive year-over-year momentum.

Last Quarter Review

Steel Dynamics reported last quarter revenue of USD 4.83 billion, a gross profit margin of 15.70%, net profit attributable to the parent company of USD 0.40 billion, a net profit margin of 8.36%, and adjusted EPS of USD 2.74, with year-over-year growth of 11.21% for revenue and 33.66% for adjusted EPS. A notable operational highlight was better-than-expected adjusted EPS versus prior estimates, supported by EBIT delivery of USD 0.51 billion and efficient cost management in the core mills. The main business mix included steel operations at USD 3.65 billion and metal recycling at USD 1.13 billion, with smaller contributions from steel manufacturing at USD 0.38 billion and aluminum-related activities at USD 0.10 billion; internal offsets were USD -0.76 billion and other revenue was USD 0.32 billion.

Current Quarter Outlook

Core Steel Operations

Steel operations remain the economic anchor for Steel Dynamics’s quarterly performance, and the forecast revenue of USD 4.58 billion, paired with projected adjusted EPS of USD 1.80, implies a moderation in mill spreads versus the prior quarter. Price dynamics in flat-rolled and long products are the primary variables, and recent indications of spot-to-contract alignment suggest a relatively stable mix for fourth-quarter shipments. A gross profit margin cadence near mid-teens aligns with the prior quarter’s 15.70%, acknowledging the lag between raw material cost resets and realized selling prices. The EBIT estimate of USD 0.36 billion reflects normalized operating run-rates and maintenance schedules in the quarter, positioning the company to balance throughput with margin preservation should end-market demand slow into year-end. Operational discipline across production lines and hedging of raw inputs help dampen quarter-to-quarter volatility, reinforcing the likely outcome of healthy profitability even as pricing tailwinds temper.

Metal Recycling and Supply Chain Integration

The metal recycling segment supports feedstock quality and cost management for the mills, enabling margin stability across cycles. With USD 1.13 billion of segment revenue last quarter, the business provides flexibility in scrap procurement, blending, and inventory turnover, which is valuable when prime scrap and obsolete grades experience price dispersion. Quarter-to-date forecasts imply lower EBIT versus the prior period, suggesting tighter metal spreads; however, integrated sourcing may limit margin leakage by synchronizing scrap intake with mill scheduling. The segment’s contribution is not only revenue but also risk mitigation through vertical alignment, reducing external dependency in volatile commodity markets. For the quarter under review, stable operating performance and working capital discipline should offset potential pricing pockets of weakness in secondary markets.

Value-Added Manufacturing and Diversification Initiatives

Downstream steel manufacturing contributed USD 0.38 billion in revenue last quarter, a level that indicates ongoing customer demand for coated, fabricated, and engineered products despite periodic softness in construction and industrial end markets. The current quarter’s forecasts suggest earnings compression relative to the prior quarter, consistent with typical seasonal effects and shipment timing in contract portfolios. Still, product differentiation and the company’s ability to tailor specifications often secure premium pricing and utilization that surpass spot market variability. The aluminum-related activities contributed USD 0.10 billion last quarter and represent an early-stage diversification vector that could compound growth over time; for the current quarter, this contribution remains modest, but the strategic progression provides optionality to smooth earnings across steel cycles. In aggregate, diversification initiatives act as a stabilizer, anchoring cash generation even when core steel spreads are in transition.

Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

Investors will focus on shipment volumes in flat-rolled and structural product lines, contract price realizations versus spot benchmarks, and the relationship between scrap costs and finished steel prices. The balance between mill utilization and maintenance downtime is central to EBIT delivery, with the quarter’s USD 0.36 billion estimate implying prudent capacity management. Margins hinge on operational execution within steel operations and recycling synergies; a gross profit margin around mid-teens is consistent with stable spread expectations, while any deviation would likely reflect faster-than-anticipated input-cost changes or end-demand shifts. Adjusted EPS guidance of USD 1.80, coupled with year-over-year growth of 40.87%, sets a high bar for delivery, and the market will parse volume mix, price realization, and cost absorption to validate the trajectory.

Analyst Opinions

Institutional commentary collected over the past six months leans supportive, with the majority of views emphasizing stable mill operations, manageable spread normalization, and disciplined execution that underpins forecast EPS of USD 1.80 and revenue of USD 4.58 billion. Analysts highlight the company’s integrated recycling platform and downstream capabilities as mechanisms that cushion margin variability across cycles, pointing to last quarter’s adjusted EPS beat and EBIT performance of USD 0.51 billion as evidence of operational durability. The supportive camp expects orderly price behavior in key flat-rolled indices, moderate year-over-year revenue growth of 15.77%, and mid-teens gross margins that align with recent outcomes; these views imply confidence in shipment stability and cost control heading into January 26, 2026 Pre-Market.