Gold prices have experienced a significant downward break.

During the early Asian session on June 30th, the spot price of London gold fell sharply in a straight line, breaching the $3,950 per ounce level. This marks the first time the price has fallen below this crucial support point since early November 2025.

At the time of reporting, spot gold was trading at $3,958.85 per ounce, representing a decline of 1.38%.

Simultaneously, prices for New York gold futures, spot London silver, and New York silver futures all moved lower.

In the domestic Chinese market, the main futures contracts for both gold and silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell nearly 3%.

Analysts point to several key factors behind the selloff. A recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling, which by a narrow 5-4 majority allowed a former Federal Reserve governor dismissed by the Trump administration to remain on the board, is seen as reinforcing the Fed's traditional independence from political interference. This, according to macro analyst Cheng Wei from Zhongsheng Futures, provides implicit support for the U.S. dollar, thereby putting downward pressure on the valuation of non-yielding assets like gold.

Regarding geopolitical tensions, Cheng Wei notes that significant differences remain between the U.S. and Iran on core demands, allowing only for limited concessions. While geopolitical risks persist, the lack of a breakthrough in negotiations has capped safe-haven buying, preventing gold from receiving a significant risk premium.

Furthermore, recent hawkish commentary from several Federal Reserve officials, who emphasized the strength of the U.S. economy and labor market while warning that high inflation may persist longer than expected, has stoked market concerns about continued monetary policy tightening. Cheng Wei stated that this has led to a renewed strengthening of the U.S. dollar index after a brief adjustment, putting renewed pressure on gold prices, with the short-term trend likely to remain weak.

Despite the current weakness, a team led by Samantha Dart, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, argues in their latest report that the gold bull market is not over.

The team wrote, "We see room for gold prices to move higher, driven by both structural and cyclical factors. Structurally, diversification of reserves by central banks in emerging markets remains the core reason for our forecast of gold reaching $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026."

Echoing a long-term bullish view, Jerry Prior, CEO of the $1.7 billion hedge fund Mount Lucas Management, previously stated that the long-term bull market for gold remains intact, and the recent price pullback creates an attractive entry point for investors.