According to Woofun AI, Bitcoin demonstrated remarkable resilience in the third quarter of 2026, gaining approximately 43%, a performance that not only outpaced the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 but also significantly outperformed gold. Despite a challenging macroeconomic environment, Bitcoin cemented its unique position as a safe-haven asset, marking one of its strongest quarters since 2013.

Reviewing its price trajectory, Bitcoin stabilized near $58,600 in early July after three consecutive quarterly declines, then accelerated its rally in August and September. This rebound unfolded against a backdrop of intensifying pressure in traditional financial markets. As of September 29, the Nasdaq Composite had gained about 5%, the S&P 500 about 4%, while gold rose less than 2%. Notably, Ethereum outperformed Bitcoin, with gains exceeding Bitcoin's leading advance.

The U.S. Treasury announced on August 19 that it would double the maximum size of its long-term debt liquidity support buyback operations to $4 billion, effective September 9. Although the department sought to curb rising yields through this move, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield still climbed 81 basis points during the quarter, with long-term borrowing costs reaching their highest levels in decades. Yet Bitcoin rose nearly 30% after the announcement, demonstrating its immunity to traditional financial pressures.

A reversal in capital flows was key to the improvement in market structure. Net outflows from the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT.US) narrowed from roughly $5 billion at the end of July to about $1 billion by the end of September, a swing of approximately $6 billion over two months. Last week, the ETF attracted $2.39 billion in inflows, the highest weekly inflow since October 2025. Daily flows were positive throughout, although demand declined from $999 million on September 21 to about $135 million on September 25.

Meanwhile, leveraged trading is retreating. Woofun AI on-chain data shows that Bitcoin futures open interest fell from over 700,000 BTC on September 21 to approximately 644,000, the lowest level since early January this year. Contracts declined by about 49,000 over seven days, the largest drop since October 2025. Open interest on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) fell by 16,075 contracts on Monday, the third-largest single-day decline on record. Futures premiums declined and implied volatility is at a one-year low, indicating that the leveraged forces driving liquidation selling have weakened, though this has also removed some speculative buying.

Changes in the spot demand structure have revealed new market dynamics. Bitfinex estimates that the number of Bitcoins with a cost basis between $82,500 and $84,000 nearly tripled within three days, reaching 306,000 tokens. This is because buyers acquired coins from profitable holders below market price and from loss-making new investors above market price. However, overhead supply resistance remains substantial. Bitfinex estimates that investors hold approximately 1.39 million Bitcoins with a cost basis between $84,000 and $86,500, including long-term holders and recent buyers who are underwater after purchasing near the September 21 high of $87,400.

CryptoQuant noted that Bitcoin last week rose above its 365-day moving average for the first time since March 2023, with realized price climbing to about $77,000. ETF buying intensity relative to the roughly 450 Bitcoins newly produced by miners each day fell from 25.6 times on September 21 to 1.8 times on September 29. Bitfinex believes this ratio needs to recover to around 5 times, or about $190 million in daily ETF demand, to absorb overhead supply. If the price breaks above $85,000, approximately 760,000 Bitcoins would return to profit, pushing the 'profitable supply ratio' close to the 75% threshold that signals a bull market. That ratio stood at 71.3% on September 29, down from 78.1% eight days earlier. Additionally, Glassnode pointed to a major supply concentration zone between $88,000 and $90,000, followed by the important level of $96,700.

Options market sentiment and seasonal patterns provide reference for future price action. Nexo stated that the put-to-call ratio for Bitcoin over the past two weeks averaged 0.67, with a $140,000 call option expiring December 25 being the largest single position. Broker positioning suggests that if the nearby supply zone is breached, $95,000 to $97,000 would be the next test. Historically, the fourth quarter is typically Bitcoin's strongest period, with average gains between 77% and 85% since 2013. BloFin Research calculations show that if current levels are maintained and the historical average gain of 77.07% is achieved, the price would reach approximately $147,000; if a mid-range gain of 47.73% is achieved, the price would be about $123,000. These forecasts are based on mathematical models, but the magnitude of recovery from lows in successive cycles is diminishing.

Monetary policy and market corrections pose direct constraints. This week the market expected about a 65% probability that the Federal Reserve would raise rates by 25 basis points in October, but Wednesday's lower-than-expected inflation data reduced that probability to about 38%. The next rate decision will be made on December 8-9, while the rate outlook ahead of the October 27-28 meeting is shifting rapidly. Data from September 28 showed Bitcoin facing broader market correction pressure, with the Nasdaq 100, gold, and Bitcoin prices falling together, which Nexo analysts view as consistent with overall deleveraging characteristics.

For Bitfinex, $81,300 is an important threshold for a price rebound. If the price stays below this level and ETF outflows persist, realized price could fall to about $77,000. Conversely, if ETF demand strengthens and the price breaks above $86,500, the price could approach the yearly opening price of about $87,700 before reaching the $90,000 supply zone. U.S. employment data due October 2 will provide traders with a reference on economic conditions, followed by inflation data and the outcome of the Fed's October meeting. Although U.S. Treasury yields remain above 5%, Bitcoin is in the midst of its historically strongest quarter, and the market is closely watching how these key catalysts will affect prices.