Tensions between the US and Iran persist, yet market focus is progressively shifting from military risks toward economic sanctions and their implications for the global crude supply landscape. US Treasury Secretary Bessent stated on the 20th that the Trump administration will intensify economic pressure on Iran and has threatened measures of "unprecedented economic isolation." He indicated that the strategy to severely damage Iran's economy could potentially eliminate the need for large-scale US military action against the country. As the possibility of heightened sanctions grows, their impact on Iranian crude exports is becoming a new variable for market watchers.

Meanwhile, visible tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains notably below pre-conflict levels, though "dark fleet" shipments are partially compensating for the deficit. UBS survey data indicates that total oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz has remained slightly above 6 million barrels per day over the past week, with dark fleet volumes rising to approximately 5-6 million barrels per day. This suggests the actual impact on crude transit may be less severe than surface shipping data reflects. More significantly, as Iranian supply remains constrained, crude loadings from other Gulf producers are recovering rapidly. The market is not facing a simple, sharp drop in total supply; instead, the regional crude supply structure is undergoing a reconfiguration.

Visible Tanker Traffic Remains Low

According to UBS Evidence Lab data, the average daily transit of oil and gas vessels through the Strait of Hormuz over the past two days was 4.0, higher than the August average of 3.7 but significantly lower than July's 6.4 average. Estimated by deadweight tonnage, Gulf export flows over the past two days were around 1.5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, below August's average of 1.9 million and well under July's 3.6 million barrels per day. However, storage tank and loading data indicate that "dark fleet" shipments have risen to 5-6 million barrels per day over the past week, partially offsetting the decline in visible traffic and keeping overall Strait of Hormuz transit volumes slightly above 6 million barrels per day. Vessel passages through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait are also below normal levels, although Red Sea-bound import and export flows have seen a recent uptick.

Concurrently, crude loadings from other Gulf producers are showing clear signs of recovery. Over the past two days, average crude loadings from non-Iranian Gulf producers rose to 10.2 million barrels per day, far exceeding the 3.6 million barrels per day recorded in the prior two days and surpassing July's average of 4.5 million barrels per day. The seven-day average since August has now exceeded 6 million barrels per day, reaching its highest level since the conflict began. In stark contrast, Iranian crude loadings remain at extremely low levels, recording zero shipments during the same period. Iran's August average stands at only about 200,000 barrels per day, down from July's 900,000 and well below the normal range of roughly 1.7-1.8 million barrels per day. This highlights a clear structural divergence in Gulf supply: Iranian exports remain constrained while other producers are ramping up loadings to partially hedge against the supply gap.

Energy Supply Still Faces Disruptions

Meanwhile, the multiple disruptions to regional energy infrastructure remain a crucial backdrop for market assessments of supply risk. Several Gulf energy facilities and refining capacities have been affected by attacks, and although some capacity is gradually being restored, these disruptions continue to keep Gulf crude and refined product shipments below normal levels. Consequently, the market's focus is shifting from isolated incidents to supply recovery capabilities. Key questions include whether new US sanctions can further compress Iranian crude exports and whether other Gulf producers can sustain increased supply to fill the void left by Iran. If Iranian exports contract further while replacement capacity fails to materialize adequately, upward pressure on crude supply could intensify, making shipping trends through the Strait of Hormuz a critical barometer for oil prices.