Haitong International recently released a research report stating that the firm previously believed A-shares would consolidate and digest earlier gains in September, while Hong Kong stocks were expected to receive short-term support from eased liquidity pressure and a stronger renminbi. Last week, A-shares experienced intense volatility, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.5% for the week and the ChiNext Index continuing significant fluctuations with a weekly gain of 2.1%. Hong Kong stocks caught up with gains driven by strong AI-related U.S. stock performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising 3.8% and the Hang Seng Tech Index gaining 5.3% last week.

After Powell released dovish signals at the Jackson Hole meeting, gold began a new round of upward momentum, with London gold accumulating rebounds of over 9%. However, this week's U.S. inflation data further confirmed rate cut expectations, yet gold prices instead fell into consolidation. The U.S. Dollar Index maintained narrow range trading during the same period, still holding above July lows, while emerging markets and Hong Kong stocks began catch-up rallies from September 5th.

Against the backdrop of rate cuts being fully priced in by the market, if the Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 basis points on September 17th, it may trigger a "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario, with gold and emerging markets facing pullback pressure while the dollar is expected to rebound. Should there be a surprise 50 basis point cut, the current bullish trend is likely to continue further.

A-share technology stocks experienced significant high-level volatility last week. Following Shenzhen's relaxation of purchase and lending restrictions on September 5th, all four tier-one cities have now fully eased restrictions, boosting real estate sentiment. However, consumer and real estate sectors are still building momentum, with subsequent policies potentially serving as breakthrough catalysts.

Hong Kong stock liquidity remained stable last week, with sentiment improvement momentum continuing. Close attention to exchange rate trends remains necessary going forward.

Sentiment improvement continues: BABA-W surged again on self-developed chips and next-generation Qwen3 model, with risk appetite continuing to heat up. Liquidity temporarily stable: HIBOR remained stable this week; driven by rate cut expectations, the renminbi appreciated moderately against the U.S. dollar; however, if the dollar rebounds later, currency support for Hong Kong stocks may weaken.

Last week, after adjusting the AH premium index by adding 22 new pairs and removing 5 AH stock pairs, the premium significantly declined to approximately 120 and may tend toward normalization.

Southbound fund net inflows surged significantly to HK$60.8 billion last week, with BABA-W (09988) continuing to receive HK$22 billion in inflows, having accumulated substantial inflows of HK$37 billion since September.

In summary, U.S. technology stocks surged driven by third-quarter earnings with the Nasdaq reaching new highs, and the market has fully priced in expectations of three rate cuts this year, driving strong rebounds in A-share technology stocks. Hong Kong stocks caught up with gains led by BABA-W and BIDU-SW (09888). However, with the U.S. tech earnings season concluding and renewed China-U.S. trade frictions, liquidity in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks is unlikely to improve significantly in the short term, with September market performance likely to maintain volatility.

Sector-wise, the firm continues to recommend buying large-cap blue chips on dips, with focus on consumer real estate, anti-involution, and non-bank financial sectors.