On Friday (November 21), the Nonferrous Metals Leader ETF (159876), which aggregates industry leaders in the nonferrous metals sector, attracted RMB 73.7 million in a single day. Over the past 10 days, it has drawn a cumulative RMB 205 million, reflecting strong market confidence and active capital inflows.

According to Shenzhen Stock Exchange data, as of November 21, the ETF's size reached RMB 677 million, making it the largest among three ETFs tracking the same index in the market.

**Geopolitical Tensions May Drive Prices Higher** On November 23, Ukraine's sudden attack on Moscow escalated the Russia-Ukraine conflict, potentially pushing up nonferrous metal prices due to: 1. **Supply Disruptions**: Russia plays a key role in global supplies of aluminum, nickel, and copper. Escalating sanctions and reputational risks may force Russian metals to shift sales channels, while mining and smelting disruptions could widen supply gaps. 2. **Safe-Haven Demand**: Investors view gold, copper, and aluminum as hedges against geopolitical risks, boosting futures prices. 3. **Strategic Stockpiling**: Military demand for metals like antimony (used in armor-piercing ammunition and missile engines) is rising amid global arms races.

**Fed’s Dovish Stance Adds Momentum** On November 21, New York Fed President John Williams signaled potential rate cuts, citing balanced inflation risks and labor market concerns. Traders now price in a 70% chance of a December cut.

CITIC Securities notes that even if the Fed pauses once, as long as the rate-cut cycle persists, nonferrous metals retain upside potential.

**Sector Outlook: Bullish Consensus** Institutions foresee a continued bull run: - **Industrial Metals** (copper, aluminum): Tight supply meets recovering demand. - **Energy Metals** (lithium, cobalt): Driven by energy storage and EV battery demand. - **Strategic Metals** (gold, rare earths): Geopolitical and reserve appeal.

**ETF Advantage: Diversified Exposure** The Nonferrous Metals Leader ETF (159876) and its linked funds (Class A: 017140; Class C: 017141) cover copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, offering diversified beta exposure versus single-metal bets.

**Risk Disclosure**: The ETF tracks the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index (base date: 2013.12.31; launched: 2015.7.13). Past performance (2020: +35.84%; 2021: +35.89%; 2022: -19.22%; 2023: -10.43%; 2024: +2.96%) is no guarantee of future results. Constituent stocks are illustrative only and not investment advice. The fund is rated R3 (moderate risk) for balanced (C3) or higher risk-profile investors. Investment decisions carry risks; historical returns don’t predict future performance.

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