IMF: Iran Conflict to Significantly Slow Middle East Economic Growth, Impact Varies by Country

Deep News
04/17

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) stated on Thursday that energy supply disruptions caused by the conflict involving Iran would severely impact the economies of oil and gas exporting nations in the Gulf region. Meanwhile, Middle Eastern oil importers such as Egypt and Jordan would face challenges from rising commodity prices and potential reductions in remittances from workers in the Gulf area. In its latest Regional Economic Outlook report, the IMF indicated that, overall, economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa region is projected to slow significantly this year. Real GDP growth is now forecast at 1.1%, which is 2.8 percentage points lower than pre-conflict projections, with a recovery expected in 2027. The IMF noted that among the oil-importing countries in the region, some are highly dependent on Gulf economies for energy imports and financial flows. These nations would face greater risks if the conflict escalates or becomes prolonged. The IMF also projected that the economic growth rate for the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) would slow sharply to 2% this year, down from an October forecast of 4.3%, with notable variations among individual countries. However, a strong rebound to 4.8% is anticipated next year. As the world's largest oil exporter and a member of the G20, Saudi Arabia is expected to be one of the less affected Gulf economies. The IMF currently forecasts that Saudi Arabia's economic growth will slow to 3.1% in 2026, 0.9 percentage points lower than the October projection.

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