UBS released a research report stating that PETROCHINA (00857) reported a net profit of RMB 126.3 billion for the first nine months of 2025, down 5% year-on-year. In the third quarter, the company recorded a net profit of RMB 42.3 billion, a 4% decline year-on-year but a 14% increase quarter-on-quarter, surpassing the bank's expectations.

UBS has raised its target price for PETROCHINA from HK$9.3 to HK$10.3. Given the better-than-expected Q3 2025 results, the bank also slightly increased its 2025 earnings forecast for the company by 2%, maintaining a "Buy" rating.

Looking ahead to Q4 2025, UBS expects Brent crude oil prices to average $63 per barrel. With domestic natural gas demand entering peak season, both gas prices and sales volume are anticipated to rise. However, the bank noted that refining and chemical fundamentals may face some pressure and advised monitoring potential asset impairments by year-end.

In the long term, UBS forecasts oil prices for PETROCHINA at $64, $70, and $75 per barrel for 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively, reflecting a gradual stabilization and rebound. Domestic natural gas prices are expected to remain more stable than international prices due to sustained demand growth in China. Additionally, PETROCHINA's downstream refining and chemical segments could benefit from policies aimed at curbing excessive competition.