From a wave structure perspective, gold has rebounded upwards from the 4099 level. However, two potential scenarios are now emerging for its future trajectory.

In the first scenario, the downward move from 5597 to 4099 has not yet concluded. After a consolidation phase upwards from 4099, the decline is expected to resume, forming a five-wave structure (as indicated by the white line), which would represent a larger-degree wave A.

Alternatively, the ABC corrective decline from 5597 to 4099 may have already completed. In this case, the move upwards from 4099 could signal the start of a new upward wave, representing a rebound of the same degree as the prior 5597-4099 decline.

Synthesizing these two scenarios, the short-term price path appears highly consistent: the current phase involves waiting for the strength of the rebound from 4099 to be tested and for signs of resistance to emerge. A short opportunity may be considered once a structure indicating a stalling rally appears. Initial resistance is observed near the 4857-4920 zone, with further resistance around the 5100 level. A potential long opportunity would depend on a confirmed break above 4099.

Spot gold held steady on Thursday at $4785.57 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures settled 0.3% lower at $4808.30. Market attention is focused on developments in Iran peace talks. The announcement of a 10-day ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon, coupled with expectations for resumed U.S.-Iran negotiations, has eased tensions in the Middle East, reducing safe-haven demand and putting downward pressure on gold prices. Additionally, a slight rebound in the U.S. dollar index and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield holding firm above 4.27% have weighed on the non-yielding asset. The short-term outlook for gold is biased towards consolidation with a bearish tilt.

On the technical front, the daily chart shows gold closing lower for two consecutive days, indicating a high-level correction phase. The 5-day and 10-day moving averages are converging, while the MACD histogram is contracting, signaling weakening upward momentum. Strong resistance is identified in the $4835-4850 range (a previous area of dense trading activity), where prices have repeatedly faced selling pressure. Key support lies at $4640, acting as a bull-bear dividing line, with nearer-term support at $4750. A break below $4750 could lead to a test of the $4700-4650 zone.

On the 4-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands are contracting, with the price trading below the middle band. The RSI has retreated to neutral territory, providing no clear directional signal. The short-term structure suggests a consolidative and slightly bearish bias, with a strong resistance zone between $4800-4830 and critical support between $4750-4730.

Overall, the intraday trading strategy for gold favors selling on rallies.

Trading Strategy Reference: Consider short positions in the $4785-4795 area, with a stop-loss set above $4802. Initial targets are $4770 and $4750, with a further extension towards $4650.