Rate Hike Bets Shaken as Fed Official Signals Inflation Data Could Decide Next Move

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Market sentiment got a fresh boost on Tuesday evening as gold and silver prices spiked sharply higher, with US equity futures also moving up in tandem. The catalyst? New comments from a key Federal Reserve official that shifted expectations around the central bank's next policy move.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said his next decision on interest rates would be "heavily influenced" by the August inflation report due out next week. Notably, he indicated that it might not take a major rebound in price pressures to push him toward supporting a rate hike at the upcoming policy meeting.

"If inflation continues to make progress toward our 2% target, then I'd be willing to hold the policy rate at its current level," Waller said. "But if the inflation data comes in hot, I would consider raising rates." However, he also offered some optimistic signals on the easing of price pressures, noting that "while inflation is still clearly above the FOMC's 2% objective, recent data suggests we are finally starting to see some signs of cooling."

The Fed's next policy meeting is scheduled for September 15-16 in Washington. So far this year, the central bank has held rates steady for five consecutive meetings. According to federal funds futures pricing, investors now see a probability of more than 60% that the Fed will raise rates this month.

Waller added that he would be willing to support holding rates unchanged at the September meeting if inflation continues to show improvement. Following his remarks, the market trimmed its bets on a rate hike, treasury yields took a dive, and the US dollar weakened.

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