China XLX Fertilizer Ltd. (01866) experienced a notable surge exceeding 4% in its share price. By the latest update, the stock climbed 3.83% to HK$5.7, accompanied by a turnover of HK$8.98 million.

This upward momentum stems from a potash fertilizer supply and price stabilization meeting organized by authorities on July 15. Key distributors unanimously agreed that the recent abnormal price increases have significantly diverged from fundamental market conditions, committing to ramp up market supply to expedite a return to rational pricing levels swiftly.

According to Baichuan Yingfu data, prices as of July 11 revealed RMB 3,230 per ton for Russian red potash at Qingdao Port, RMB 3,415 per ton for 62% white potash at the same port, RMB 3,600 per ton for Canadian white potash at Zhanjiang Port, and RMB 3,500 per ton for Jordan white potash there. These mark week-on-week gains of 5.9%, 3.17%, 4.96%, and 4.48%, respectively.

Debon Securities emphasized that EU tariffs on Russian fertilizers in 2025 will shift European demand to non-mainstream sources like Laos, driving potash prices higher. Off-season price hikes by North American producers, including Canada's FOB rate rising to $390 per short ton, accentuate supply tightness for 2025. China's contract prices also underpin global markets. The firm projects that persistent supply disruptions and resilient demand will sustain tight international potash supply, prolonging the current favorable industry cycle.