【Shanghai Copper】 Today, the main Shanghai copper contract traded sideways with slight signs of position shifting. The fundamental picture remains largely unchanged. Post-holiday market sentiment has improved, coupled with persistently tight supply. Copper concentrate treatment charges (TC) remain in negative territory, putting pressure on smelter profits, which provides strong support for copper prices. Recent expectations of further supply tightening in overseas markets have also contributed to the firm price trend. Copper prices are expected to maintain high-level volatility with no immediate marginal drivers in sight. Although the tight supply situation persists, the already high copper prices have begun to suppress downstream demand. Cautious transactions in the spot market are limiting the upside potential for prices.

【Shanghai Aluminum】 Today, the main Shanghai aluminum contract continued its volatile pattern, rallying intraday before retreating. The short-term contradictions remain, presenting an overall picture of external tightness versus internal looseness. Signs of easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran have boosted market risk appetite, leading to a fade in the supply concerns and risk premium previously driven by geopolitical conflicts. The fundamental structure of "strong overseas, weak domestic" persists. Overseas supply remains tight due to production cuts in the Middle East. Domestically, however, supply remains high, with social inventories at historically elevated levels for this period. Post-holiday demand has been lackluster, and the high inventory is exerting significant downward pressure on prices. Shanghai aluminum is expected to maintain a weak, high-volatility trend. Subsequent focus should be on the pace of domestic inventory drawdown and the performance of aluminum product exports.