Abstract

Ross Stores, Inc. will release fiscal first quarter results on May 21, 2026, Post Market, with investors focused on revenue growth, profitability trajectory, and adjusted EPS alongside evidence of disciplined merchandising, inventory flow, and the pace of new-store expansion.

Market Forecast

Consensus forecasts indicate Ross Stores, Inc. will deliver revenue of 5.59 billion US dollars this quarter, up 12.57% year over year, EBIT of 679.52 million US dollars, up 15.88% year over year, and adjusted EPS of 1.69, up 16.93% year over year. Margin forecasts were not disclosed in the available estimates. Management’s execution priorities remain centered on offering branded bargains while pacing markdowns and maintaining tight expense control, which sets up the core business to target mid-teens EPS expansion on low double-digit revenue growth. Within the sales mix, Home decor, bed and bath remains a key opportunity area, contributing roughly 1.73 billion US dollars last quarter on a 26% mix, with the category expected to benefit from spring-summer refresh initiatives.

Last Quarter Review

Ross Stores, Inc. reported revenue of 6.64 billion US dollars, a gross profit margin of 28.67%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of 646.00 million US dollars, a net profit margin of 9.73%, and adjusted EPS of 2.00, up 11.73% year over year. A notable highlight was the upside versus consensus: revenue surpassed estimates by 196.08 million US dollars and adjusted EPS exceeded expectations by 0.10. In the sales mix, Home decor, bed and bath accounted for about 26% of quarterly revenue (~1.73 billion US dollars), followed by ladies apparel at approximately 22% (~1.46 billion US dollars), men’s apparel and accessories/beauty at roughly 15% each (~1.00 billion US dollars apiece), shoes at about 862.61 million US dollars, and kids at about 597.19 million US dollars; overall company revenue increased 12.23% year over year.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main business momentum and profitability cadence

The key to Ross Stores, Inc.’s quarter is the repeatability of its value-focused merchandising playbook alongside measured markdown activity. The consensus profile points to revenue of 5.59 billion US dollars, up 12.57% year over year, which would mark a solid post-holiday normalization and a return to the company’s typical spring shoulder-season cadence. With EBIT projected at 679.52 million US dollars, up 15.88% year over year, operating leverage is anticipated to come from steady merchandise margin and disciplined SG&A, partially offset by seasonal downshifts from the holiday quarter. The company’s last reported gross margin of 28.67% and net margin of 9.73% provide a reference point for investors to gauge any sequential normalization tied to clearance, payroll timing, and occupancy deleverage. While there is no formal margin forecast disclosed in the data, consensus EPS of 1.69, up 16.93% year over year, implies modest operating margin expansion versus the comparable period last year, aided by efficient buying and favorable inventory turn. Execution risk resides in maintaining a balanced assortment while protecting price gaps; the prior quarter’s 26.16% quarter-on-quarter increase in net profit shows how quickly earnings can scale when ticket, traffic, and markdowns align with plan. Beyond the P&L, investors will closely parse inventory productivity, packaway balances, and the pace of distribution throughput. Efficient inventory flow typically underpins conversions and limits markdown exposure, which in turn supports merchandise margin. Any commentary on expense leverage associated with store labor efficiency and distribution productivity will be central to how the market updates EBIT sensitivity for the remainder of the year.

Most promising business driver this quarter

Home decor, bed and bath stands out in the near term because it represents the largest revenue pool and is most closely aligned with seasonal redecoration demand. Last quarter, this category contributed approximately 1.73 billion US dollars on 26% of sales, providing a sizable base for incremental gains from a relatively modest lift in transactions or basket size. Merchandising set changes for spring and early summer, coupled with accessible price points on branded closeouts, position the category to attract incremental traffic even if broader discretionary budgets remain selective. The category also has a direct line to gross margin outcomes through mix management, since larger ticket purchases and coordinated assortments can reduce per-unit handling costs while enhancing markdown efficiency. Given consensus expects total-company revenue growth of 12.57% and EPS growth of 16.93%, positive mix in Home decor, bed and bath would provide an additional margin ballast if sell-through is maintained with fewer markdowns. Investors will be looking for commentary on inventory availability, cadence of receipt flows, and early read-through from recent floor-set updates to gauge sustainability into the summer. Shoes is another area with tactical upside within the quarter, contributing approximately 862.61 million US dollars last quarter. Tightened vendor alignments and enhanced brand penetration can raise average unit retail while still preserving the off-price value proposition; if this occurs in tandem with healthy turns, shoes can deliver incremental merchandise margin and cash conversion. That said, the breadth of opportunities still appears concentrated in Home decor, bed and bath due to its sheer scale.

Variables most likely to move the stock around the print

The first swing factor is the trajectory of gross margin relative to last year and the sequential trend from the holiday quarter. While investors do not have a published consensus gross margin forecast in the data, the spread between the prior quarter’s 28.67% and the implied EBIT cadence will shape how the market recalibrates full-year earnings sensitivity. Evidence of stable markdown rates and improvement in merchandise margins would likely be interpreted as supportive of the consensus EPS path; conversely, heavier-than-expected clearance could compress the quarter’s flow-through. The second variable is comparable sales health as inferred from revenue growth, mix, and commentary on traffic versus ticket. The 12.57% expected revenue growth is robust for a spring quarter, so investors will parse whether growth skewed to traffic or basket size and whether the cadence held throughout the quarter. If traffic gains are broad-based and basket sizes are stable without notable promotional pressure, confidence in sustaining double-digit revenue growth into the summer will improve. The third swing factor is operating expense leverage. Investors will watch store labor efficiency, distribution and transportation costs, and occupancy leverage versus plan, alongside any mentions of cost offsets from process improvements. Material SG&A leverage would validate the projected 15.88% EBIT growth and provide support for the 16.93% EPS growth outlook. Any update to the full-year outlook or commentary on capital allocation, including the pace of new-store openings and repurchase activity, could also influence the post-print reaction if it alters the path of earnings power per share.

Analyst Opinions

The prevailing view among institutions since January 2026 has been bullish, with a clear majority of Buy or Overweight/Outperform ratings and a series of upward price-target revisions; among non-neutral opinions in the covered period, bullish calls outweigh bearish views by 100% to 0%. Wells Fargo maintained a Buy rating during the period with a 205.00 US dollars price target, highlighting continued traffic resilience and effective inventory procurement that supports the earnings cadence. Jefferies reaffirmed a Buy rating and a 210.00 US dollars price target, emphasizing the company’s ability to manage value gaps while elevating the assortment to sustain mix and margin gains. Barclays maintained an Overweight rating while lifting its price target to 221.00 US dollars, citing confidence in ongoing execution and the durability of sales growth in the current fiscal year. Guggenheim increased its price target materially to 290.00 US dollars while keeping a Buy rating, noting that recent operational performance warrants a higher valuation framework as earnings quality improves. Telsey Advisory Group upgraded the shares to Outperform and raised its price target to 240.00 US dollars, attributing the shift to sustained top-line momentum and margin stability that together argue for upside to estimates if execution persists. Citigroup raised its price target to 261.00 US dollars, pointing to a healthy spring setup and merchandising consistency that can underpin double-digit EPS growth. Erste Group maintained its Buy rating during the period, underscoring confidence in continued profit expansion driven by expense control and merchandising discipline. Counterbalancing these constructive views, Bernstein maintained a Hold rating and a price target of 180.00 US dollars, reflecting a neutral stance pending clearer evidence of margin expansion durability; however, the neutral posture remains a minority view in the current cycle of updates and does not change the majority skew. Across the bullish cohort, common threads appear: expectations for low double-digit revenue growth this quarter, careful markdown management to protect merchandise margin, and SG&A discipline that together can drive mid-teens earnings growth. The beat-and-raise setup is a frequent theme in bullish previews, anchored by the prior quarter’s upside to revenue and EPS and management’s consistent execution on the core value proposition. Several institutions also highlight incremental opportunities from store expansion and improved inventory availability, both of which can support comps without outsized promotional intensity. In synthesis, the majority of analysts anticipate a constructive print characterized by double-digit revenue growth, improving operating leverage, and EPS expansion consistent with the 1.69 estimate. Within that framework, the debate hinges on the degree of margin normalization from the holiday quarter and the sustainability of mix benefits in Home decor, bed and bath. The ensemble of Buy and Overweight ratings, along with multiple recent price-target increases to the 205.00–290.00 US dollars range, positions expectations on the positive side while leaving execution on markdowns, mix, and expense control as the key determinants of the stock’s reaction on May 21, 2026, Post Market.