Following the impact of the Spring Festival holiday and maintenance activities at smelting enterprises, China's electrolytic lead output in February 2026 declined as expected, dropping by 17.07% month-on-month and 1.21% year-on-year. Cumulative production for January to February 2026 increased by 8.39% compared to the same period last year. The holiday period led many smelters to schedule equipment maintenance or temporary closures, which was the primary cause of the February output reduction. Small and medium-sized smelters in regions such as Hunan and Yunnan generally reduced production, with some maintenance plans extending into March. Additionally, a dip in precious metal prices early in the month prompted lead smelters to shift from high-grade to low-grade ore to mitigate risks, as silver—a byproduct of lead smelting—saw lower prices. This adjustment further reduced output of both lead ingots and silver. Even as large and medium-sized smelters in Guangdong and Jiangxi resumed operations after maintenance, the overall production decline for February could not be reversed.

Looking ahead to March, the influence of the holiday has faded, and the month’s 31 calendar days provide a return to normal working schedules, which is expected to boost production levels. Most smelters that underwent maintenance or suspended operations during the holiday have gradually resumed production. Facilities in Henan, Yunnan, and Hunan are among those returning to full operation, which should help March output recover and offset February’s decline. Furthermore, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East early in March have reignited a rally in precious metal prices. Rising silver prices may indirectly encourage smelters to increase production. SMM forecasts that electrolytic lead output in March will rise by more than 18% compared to February.

Data source statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market exchanges, and SMM’s internal database models, and are for reference only, not as a basis for decision-making.