Gold Prices Extend Decline for Seventh Session as Middle East Conflict Dampens Rate Cut Prospects

Deep News
03/19

Escalating hostilities in the Middle East have driven up oil prices and reduced expectations for near-term interest rate cuts in the United States, leading to a seventh consecutive day of declines in gold prices. Gold fell as much as 1.5% during the session, reversing an earlier 1% gain, and is on track for its longest losing streak since October 2023. The U.S. Federal Reserve, in its latest meeting on Wednesday, held interest rates steady and projected only one rate cut for this year. Chair Jerome Powell stated that any reduction in rates would be contingent on signs of moderating inflation. Fed officials noted in their statement that the conflict has introduced "significant uncertainty" into the U.S. economic outlook. On Thursday, attacks between Iran and Israel targeted key energy facilities in the Persian Gulf, prompting a rise in oil prices. As the conflict enters its third week, surging crude oil and natural gas prices are heightening inflation risks, thereby diminishing the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Fed and other central banks. This has put pressure on gold, which bears no yield. A stronger U.S. dollar has further weighed on dollar-denominated commodities. Nicholas Frappell, Global Head of Institutional Markets at ABC Refinery in Australia, commented, "A stronger U.S. dollar and broad tightening pressure from developed market central banks are clouding the short-term outlook for gold. However, if inflation outpaces policy rates, declining real rates could support gold in the medium term." Despite maintaining a year-to-date gain of over 10%, gold's upward momentum has stalled as near-term rate cut expectations fade and some investors sell gold to meet margin requirements for other portfolio investments. After hitting a record high above $5,595 per ounce in late January, the price of gold has fallen nearly 9% from the start of the conflict on February 28 through Wednesday's close. Christopher Wood, Global Head of Equity Strategy at Jefferies, stated in an interview, "Gold has entered a consolidation phase. The fact that prices have not reached new highs following the outbreak of this conflict signals a temporary peak." He anticipates gold will trade within a range of $4,500 to $5,500 per ounce. Separately, following the Fed's meeting on Wednesday, Powell addressed his future at the central bank amid a Justice Department investigation. He indicated that he has no intention of resigning from his position on the Federal Reserve Board before the investigation concludes.

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