Abstract

York Space Systems, Inc will report fiscal Q2 2026 results on August 13, 2026 Post-Mkt.

Market Forecast

Consensus modeling embedded in recent forecasts points to revenue of 91.56 million US dollars, EBIT of -14.50 million US dollars, and adjusted EPS of -0.16 for the current quarter; year-over-year growth placeholders are undisclosed, while margin expectations imply a continued loss trajectory. The company’s latest report pointed to a government-heavy backlog and execution cadence that keeps near-term mix tilted to fixed-price government programs, with commercial and other contributions still small but gradually building; the most promising vector is the nascent commercial/other segment at 2.04 million US dollars last quarter, though disclosed YoY comparisons are unavailable.

Last Quarter Review

York Space Systems, Inc’s previous quarter delivered revenue of 116.34 million US dollars, a gross profit margin of 19.04%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of -115.00 million US dollars, a net profit margin of -98.71%, and adjusted EPS of -0.78; the tool did not provide comparable year-over-year figures. One notable highlight was a substantial sequential drop in net profit, reflected by quarter-on-quarter growth of -303.00%, underscoring operating pressure and cost absorption as program delivery timing shifted. By business, government revenue was 114.31 million US dollars and commercial and other was 2.04 million US dollars, with YoY growth indicators not disclosed.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main business: Government programs and fixed-price execution

The government business remains the main revenue pillar, with the last quarter registering 114.31 million US dollars and accounting for roughly 98% of total revenue. The near-term outlook is anchored in scheduled milestones and hardware deliveries for government customers, which often involve milestone payments and acceptance criteria that can swing quarterly revenue and margin. The earnings setup this quarter focuses on execution quality against those milestones, re-baselined cost curves, and any evidence of improved gross margin capture versus the last quarter’s 19.04% print. A stabilized delivery cadence could help defend revenue around the forecasted 91.56 million US dollars level, but the mix and timing of milestones will likely determine whether margins recover from a depressed base. Investors will look for signals that program management actions are lowering rework and expedite costs that pressured prior-quarter profitability.

Most promising business: Commercial and other payloads and platforms

Commercial and other accounted for 2.04 million US dollars last quarter, a small base relative to government, yet it is the lever with the greatest optionality for future quarters. The quarter’s preview hinges on whether the pipeline of commercial constellation wins, hosted payload contracts, or recurring services is converting to recognized revenue at a faster clip. If the company can demonstrate a series of smaller, higher-margin commercial deliveries or service revenues, that could gradually lift blended gross margin and reduce reliance on large fixed-price government milestones. The market will parse commentary for backlog growth, attach rates for value-added services, and any traction with repeat commercial customers that indicates a path to more diversified revenue.

Stock drivers this quarter: Margins, cash discipline, and backlog visibility

The pivotal variables for the stock this quarter are margin trajectory, operating expense control, and the quality and duration of funded backlog. With consensus implying negative EBIT and a loss-making EPS, incremental changes in gross margin from the 19.04% baseline could significantly affect operating leverage. Updates on cash usage, milestone collections, and working-capital swings connected to government acceptance events will be critical to investor confidence. A clear schedule for upcoming deliveries and any color on repeat awards or multi-year IDIQ call-offs could support visibility and temper concerns about quarter-to-quarter volatility.

Analyst Opinions

There are no accessible, credible analyst previews or institutional ratings available within the required time window, leaving the balance of bullish versus bearish opinions indeterminate. In the absence of published majority views, the market is likely to focus on execution against the revenue forecast of 91.56 million US dollars, any sequential gross margin improvement from 19.04%, and signs that adjusted EPS loss can narrow from -0.78 last quarter toward the -0.16 estimate this quarter.