GF Securities released a research report stating that commercial flow determines logistics, with upstream changes in commercial flow shaping the evolution of logistics. By 2025, competition among e-commerce platforms and local service providers in food delivery/instant retail has intensified to a new level. Players like JD.com (09618, JD.US), Alibaba (09988, BABA.US), and Meituan (03690) are ramping up efforts in instant retail, driving demand for instant delivery. Looking ahead, the spatiotemporal distribution of instant delivery supply chains may become more balanced, with firms offering better timeliness and alignment with upstream demand poised to benefit. Notably, JD Logistics (02618), tied to commercial flow, and leading third-party provider SF Intra-City (09699) warrant attention.

**Key Insights from GF Securities:** **Demand Shift: From Food Delivery to E-Commerce, Near-Field Supply Chains Gain Share** The instant delivery market, historically anchored by food delivery (accounting for nearly 80% of orders, per iResearch), is expanding into broader scenarios like snacks, beverages, household goods, and pharmaceuticals, fueled by instant retail growth. According to Frost & Sullivan, China’s instant delivery orders reached 48.28 billion in 2024, up 17.6% YoY. Rising demand for convenience and 24-hour responsiveness is diversifying and fragmenting needs, elevating the role of near-field supply chains.

**Supply Dynamics: First-Party Dominance, Third-Party Support, with Rider Networks as Core** Instant delivery networks operate without intermediaries, featuring point-to-point routes and pronounced peak-valley demand (e.g., meal times). Timeliness and service quality are critical. In food delivery/instant retail value chains, rider networks are pivotal, capturing over half of total revenue (56% for Meituan’s food delivery in 2021; 61% for DoorDash post-food costs). Rider costs remain high—for instance, FlashEx’s 2024 data shows rider expenses at ~85% of revenue. Crowdsourced riders now dominate supply (71.52% of Meituan’s fleet in 2024), reflecting flexible labor dynamics. The industry’s supply structure remains first-party-led, supplemented by third-party providers, shaped by platform competition and unique labor models.

**Risks:** Slower-than-expected growth in food delivery/instant retail demand, heightened competition, and rider management challenges.