A cost estimate report released Tuesday by the U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) indicates that the "Gold Dome" national missile defense system proposed by President Trump could cost up to $1.2 trillion over the next 20 years. This figure far exceeds Trump's earlier estimate of $175 billion.
The report states this estimate is based on the blueprint outlined in an executive order Trump issued in January 2025. Analysis suggests that to achieve the goal of protecting the U.S. homeland, the military would need to deploy a four-layer independent defense architecture comprising thousands of satellites in Alaska and Hawaii. It would also require building six radar and interceptor sites targeting intercontinental ballistic missiles, along with 35 new regional sites for defense against hypersonic and cruise missiles.
Core Costs and Technical Challenges Draw Scrutiny The CBO report provides a detailed analysis of the system's cost structure, noting that the "space-based interceptors"—orbital satellite constellations carrying missiles—envisioned by the President would account for approximately 60% of the total cost.
The report assumes that to counter up to 10 enemy ICBMs simultaneously, the U.S. military might need to deploy around 7,800 armed satellites. However, because these interceptors would need to be placed in low Earth orbit, atmospheric drag would cause the satellites to lose altitude and burn up within about five years. This implies the entire system would face continuous and expensive replacement costs.
Furthermore, the report clearly concludes that even if the system is eventually built, adversaries with large nuclear arsenals could potentially overwhelm its defenses with saturation attacks, and it could not completely guarantee that missiles would be prevented from reaching their targets.
Strategic Positioning and Regional Defense Layout Tom Karako, a missile defense expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), stated that no air defense system can provide 100% protection for the entire territory at all times. He pointed out that an important context for this plan is addressing the threat posed by high-precision conventional guided weapons. Karako believes the emergence of such weapons allows adversaries to achieve strategic strike effects without triggering nuclear retaliation, and the "Gold Dome" system aims to fill this defensive gap.
Regarding regional deployment, the CBO report states that U.S. territory Guam is planned to receive a "comprehensive, layered defense system" separate from the Gold Dome project. Other territories such as American Samoa, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands would likely be covered by their respective regional defense stations.
Geopolitical Impact and Strategic Consequences The strategic consequences of the plan have sparked deep concern within the United States. The Congressional Research Service (CRS) had previously warned that the construction of such anti-missile systems could trigger serious strategic miscalculations, prompting Russia and China to increase the size of their nuclear arsenals in response.
Historical context shows that the U.S. decision in 2001 to unilaterally withdraw from the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty paved the way for the U.S. to develop and deploy such defense networks. The international community widely believes that the continued U.S. strengthening of its missile defense architecture will seriously impact global strategic stability.