On May 11th, the international gold market showed signs of stabilization and recovery. After a two-week correction, spot gold prices have climbed back above $4,700 per ounce. By Friday, gold had risen approximately 0.65% to around $4,716, with silver also strengthening by over 2% in tandem. The market widely views gold's return to the $4,700 threshold as reflecting a phased return of bullish sentiment, with panic from the previous correction gradually being digested.
Multiple market analysts note that the current rebound is supported by a confluence of macro factors and institutional allocation demand. The long-term investment thesis for precious metals as cross-cycle assets remains intact.
On the macro front, the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate remains steady in the 3.5% to 3.75% range. Energy prices, elevated by conflicts in the Middle East, are making it difficult for inflation pressures to recede quickly, leading to a significant cooling of market expectations for rate cuts within the year. Analysis suggests that while divergent Fed signals and an uncertain policy path make the timing of rate cuts difficult to confirm, the long-term downtrend in real interest rates remains unchanged. Institutions judge that central bank reserve diversification, the evolution of the dollar system, and safe-haven demand constitute the core logic for a sustained upward shift in gold's price center. Institutional clients have increased their allocation activity near the lower bounds of the adjusted price range.
From a technical perspective, gold's daily chart shows a renewed bullish alignment after breaking through short-term moving average resistance. The MACD momentum has turned positive, and the KDJ indicator has risen significantly from oversold territory, indicating a phase of exhaustion in bearish pressure. Institutions are also noting that global central bank gold purchases have continued uninterrupted, with physical demand in Asia remaining robust. Marginal changes in ETF holdings, physical demand from wedding seasons in India and the Middle East, and the COMEX gold futures delivery ratio are key windows for observing genuine capital flow sentiment. The structure of gold option open interest, the movement of the gold-to-silver ratio, and the relative performance of mining stocks serve as supplementary indicators for gauging real capital attitudes and shifts in market risk appetite. Cross-verification of these multi-dimensional signals can enhance the quality of market judgment.
Market analysts anticipate that gold prices may consolidate within a range of $4,600 to $4,900 per ounce in the short term, with room for further upside in the medium to long term. Several institutions emphasize that investors should fully understand the attributes of precious metals as cross-cycle assets, focusing on key metrics such as real interest rates, the US Dollar Index, oil price trends, and global risk-off sentiment. The market cautions against chasing rallies or selling off around data releases, advising investors to build positions in batches according to their own risk tolerance to navigate the current policy observation window with a steady approach.