GTHT has released a research report indicating that the Chinese neurodegenerative disease drug market is projected to be valued at approximately $2.6 billion in 2025, with expectations to grow to $5.5 billion by 2030 (a CAGR of about 16.0%). This growth rate significantly outpaces the global average of 8.1%. The burden of Alzheimer's disease (AD) is substantial and continues to expand rapidly. Traditional symptomatic treatments have reached a plateau phase, while anti-Aβ monoclonal antibodies have launched a new era of disease-modifying therapy (DMT). Multi-mechanism small molecules and next-generation brain-penetrating technologies are poised to further overcome the delivery bottleneck of the blood-brain barrier, and the pipeline layouts of domestic innovative drug companies demonstrate strong competitiveness.

The key points from GTHT's analysis are as follows.

Substantial Disease Burden Opens Market Expansion Space for Disease-Modifying Therapies

The number of Alzheimer's disease patients in China rose from 12.5 million in 2020 to 15.1 million in 2025, and is projected to reach 18.0 million by 2030 and 21.5 million by 2035, with growth rates consistently exceeding global trends. The Chinese neurodegenerative disease drug market, at about $2.6 billion in 2025, is expected to grow to $5.5 billion by 2030 (CAGR of ~16.0%), significantly faster than the 8.1% global growth rate.

Traditional Symptomatic Drugs See Slowing Growth, Anti-Aβ Monoclonal Antibody DMT Therapies Penetrate Faster

Traditional drugs like donepezil can only improve symptoms and have entered a plateau phase. Anti-Aβ monoclonal antibodies such as lecanemab and donanemab, approved since 2023, have achieved breakthroughs in removing Aβ from its source. The AD treatment market is rapidly shifting from symptomatic treatment to disease-modifying therapies.

Limitations of Anti-Aβ Monoclonal Antibodies Create Opportunity for Multi-Mechanism Oral Small Molecules

The intravenous administration of these antibodies is hindered by poor compliance, ARIA risk, and high costs. The oral Aβ aggregation inhibitor ALZ-801 has shown significant efficacy and neuroprotective effects in early MCI subgroups, highlighting the advantages of convenient administration. Next-generation brain-penetrating technologies, such as receptor-mediated transport (TfR/ATV platforms) and focused ultrasound, are breaking through the blood-brain barrier bottleneck. Animal models show a 5-8 fold increase in brain drug concentration with almost no ARIA-like lesions.

Domestic Companies' Pipeline Layouts Demonstrate Competitiveness

Key players include 康诺亚 with CM383 (superior half-life compared to marketed anti-Aβ antibodies), 和铂医药 with NEU2005 (a bispecific antibody) and NEU3001 (an AOC), 康方生物 with AK152 (China's first Aβ/BBB bispecific antibody, now in Phase I), and 新华制药 with OAB-14 (a novel oral RXR agonist with a new mechanism, with Phase 2a enrollment completed).

Risk Warnings

Risks include the potential failure of innovative drug R&D, clinical progress not meeting expectations, slower-than-expected drug sales, and challenges in out-licensing domestic drugs overseas.